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Turkey Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 65
The Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
After foreign tourism got off to an impressive start in the early months of 2011, the most recent available data, for January-July, show a moderation in growth but with the number of tourist arrivals still up by nearly 11% year-on-year (y-o-y). A number of top tourism markets recorded strong growth in arrivals, particularly, in order of importance, Germany (8% y-o-y), Russia (16%), the Netherlands (14%) and France (30%). In contrast, the UK, another relatively important source market, recorded a 5% y-o-y fall in arrivals over the seven-month period.
Hospitality
Following a very strong rebound in the hospitality sector in Q111 from foreign and domestic tourists, data for Q211 show reasonable growth in the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights, which were up by 8.5% y-o-y. Foreign tourism provided the growth, with the number of nights up by 12% compared with Q210. Domestic tourism over the quarter was subdued, however, with nights falling by over 2% y-o-y. The split between foreign and domestic room nights in Q211 was 80% to 20% respectively.
Terrorist Incidents
There was an increase in terrorist attacks in Turkey in summer 2011. In July, 13 Turkish soldiers and seven Kurdish rebels were killed in south-eastern Turkey in one of the deadliest clashes in recent years. In August, three soldiers were killed in an ambush by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in eastern Turkey, while nine soldiers were killed and 14 were injured in an attack by the PKK in Hakkari province close to the Iraqi border. In September, there was a suspected bomb blast in Ankara that wounded more than a dozen people.
Forecast Scenario
BMI maintains a favourable outlook for foreign visitor arrivals in 2011, with annual growth forecast at over 12%. Growth in arrivals is expected to continue to slow somewhat in 2012 but remain relatively robust. This outlook is partly based on the continuing economic recovery in Turkey’s major source markets, including the eurozone, Russia and the UK. The economic growth forecasts have been revised for the eurozone this quarter and growth of 1.9% (from 2.1%) and 1.7% in 2011 and 2012 respectively is now expected. However, growth in Germany – the key market for inbound tourism – is forecast to slow from 3.5% in 2011 to 2.0% in 2012. In Russia, solid economic growth of 4.6% and 4.5% in 2011 and 2012 respectively is expected, while UK growth should pick up from 1.4% (revised down this quarter) to 2.2% over the same period. The sharp depreciation in the Turkish lira against the euro and the US dollar has improved the competitiveness of the tourism sector. However, the lira is anticipated to appreciate against both currencies in 2012, with forecast exchange rates of TRY1.9400/EUR and TRY1.4000/US$ by the end of the year.
Istanbul Atatürk Airport
The solid growth in foreign tourism so far in 2011 is confirmed by data from the country’s main airport, Istanbul Atatürk Airport. During the first five months of 2011, international passenger traffic was up by over 14% y-o-y to about 8.6mn passengers.
Turkish Airlines
In June 2011, Turkish Airlines (THY) dismissed press reports that it had been in contact with Spanish airline Spanair about a possible partnership. In July, THY said it will commence a new route: Istanbul- Dammam-Istanbul. The airline also announced, in August, the extension of the Istanbul-São Paulo- Istanbul route to include Buenos Aires. Its most recent figures, for January-August 2011, show a solid increase of 10% y-o-y in total passengers, reaching about 21.2mn. International business class traffic was up by 24% y-o-y.
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