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United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 122
Business Monitor International's United States Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's oil and gas industry.
The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.17% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 72.01% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption will have reached an estimated 21.53mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011. It is set to rise to 22.49mn b/d by 2015.
In the meantime, supply will average an estimated 12.01mn b/d in 2011 and could climb to 12.91mn b/d by 2015, thanks largely to biofuels and production from Canada's oil sands projects offsetting the conventional oil decline in Canada and the US. Net imports for the region should be 9.58mn b/d in 2015 – up from an estimated 9.52mn b/d in 2011.
In terms of natural gas, the North American region will have consumed an estimated 767bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, with demand of 846bcm targeted for 2015, representing 10.4% growth. Production of an estimated 945cm in 2011 is set to rise to 1,019bcm in 2015. The US share of gas consumption in 2011 will have been an estimated 87.98%, while it will have contributed 82.43% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.58%, with 84.39% of regional supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will be 1.65%, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMI's oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
BMI forecasts Brent production to average US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$97.50/bbl in 2012. WTI is forecast to average US$95.30 in 2011 and US$94.50 in 2012.
US real GDP growth in 2011 is forecast by BMI at 2.56%. BMI is assuming 2.64% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Average US oil and liquids production (including bio fuels) will have been an estimated 8.63mn b/d in 2011. By 2015, BMI is forecasting output of 9.30mn b/d. US oil demand in 2011 is put by BMI at 19.26mn b/d. BMI now sees US oil use hitting 20.06mn b/d by 2015, requiring crude imports of 10.76mn b/d. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 667bcm in 2011 to nearly 713bcm by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, BMI is forecasting a 10.44% rise in US oil/bio fuels production, with output rising steadily to 9.53mn b/d in 2020. Given that oil consumption is forecast to rise by 9.98%, imports should rise from an estimated 10.63mn b/d in 2011 to 11.65mn b/d during the forecast period.
With investment pouring into unconventional gas plays across the country, gas production could reach 766bcm by 2020. Demand is also set to increase, rising from an estimated 667bcm in 2011 to 750bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI's country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 87.6, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. BMI's long-term economic rating for the country is 64.1, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9.
The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain's BP the biggest foreign investor (prior to its recent asset disposal programme), followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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