BMI Global Oil Market Report

  • ID: 1937651
  • October 2011
  • Region: Global
  • 19 Pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The BMI global oil supply and demand assumptions for 2011 and beyond have again been revisited, reflecting changes in the oil market and broader macroeconomic trends.

The second half of 2011 saw much of the market’s focus shift from concerns over supply, following the loss of Libyan volumes in February, to worries over the demand outlook, as macroeconomic conditions worsened across Western and emerging economies.

In BMI's view, the focus on demand-side dynamics will continue over the rest of 2011 and into 2012 as macroeconomic weakness feeds through into oil demand. BMI has downgraded the 2011 US real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.9% and the medium-term outlook offers little hope for a strong recovery. Even slower growth in the eurozone is expected –of around 1.9% - and mounting risks to growth in China are foreseen.

There is already evidence that worsening macroeconomic conditions and demand destruction resulting from high oil prices have started to hit oil consumption. In the US, it is now forecast that liquids consumption will grow by just 0.57% in 2011, compared to a growth rate of 2.01% in 2010. With signs that a disappointing summer driving READ MORE >

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Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
CHART: Global Oil Supply And Demand, 000b/d
CHART: Global Oil Production Growth, Year-on-year %
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Long-Term Supply And Demand
TABLE: BMI Compared To Consensus - 2011 (% CHG Y-O-Y)

Oil price Outlook
Oil Price Outlook, September 2011
Chart: Brent and WTI Price Forecasts
CHART: Brent & WTI Prices (US$/bbl) and Spread (US$/bbl)
CHART: Brent & WTI Spread, (US$/bbl)
In Relation To Consensus
Technicals Point to US$95 Support
CHART: Spot Brent Crude, US$/bbl (Weekly Chart)
Risks to Outlook
CHART: Price Forecasts for OPEC Basket, Dubai and Urals

Refinery Products Outlook
CHART: US Gasoline and Diesel Prices (US$/gallon)
CHART: Selected Products Prices (FOB Singapore, US$/bbl)
TABLE: Oil Pro ducts Price Forecast, US$/BBL

Global Assumptions
Europe on the Edge
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecast
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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