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Germany Metals Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 51
Business Monitor International's Germany Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's metals industry.
The German steel market is losing momentum and steelmakers are likely to review their operations in the country over coming months, with the likelihood of temporary blast furnace closures and reduced output, according to this latest Germany Metals Report from BMI.
In the January-August period of 2011, Germany's crude steel production reached 30.5mn tonnes, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), according to Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl (WV Stahl), the German steel federation.
In H111, WV Stahl says, the German steel industry was operating at over 90% capacity, with utilisation rates reaching 94% in June. In the first five months of the year, flat steel output was up 6.1% y-o-y to 11.32mn tonnes and long steel was up 3.8% to 5.46mn tonnes. Overall, hot rolled production was up 5.3% y-o-y to 16.78mn tonnes.
As a result, BMI has revised down its forecast for crude steel output for 2011 from 46mn tonnes to 44.03mn tonnes, representing growth of 0.5%. For 2012, output is forecast at 46.06mn tonnes, up 4.5%, while domestic finished steel consumption is set to rise 5.5% to 40.73mn tonnes.
One of the fastest growing steel-consuming segments has been the manufacture of machinery goods and tools. In Q211, order bookings in the German machine tool industry rose 83% y-o-y, according to the Verein Deutscher Werkzeugmaschinenfabriken (VDW, German Machine Tool Builders' Association). Domestic demand in Germany in the quarter increased 72% while export orders rose by 88% y-o-y.
For H111 as a whole, demand increased 103% y-o-y with domestic orders up 96% and exports up 107%. The domestic automotive industry and the Chinese market were the key growth drivers over the first six months of the year. Flats production was supported by a 6% y-o-y rise in German passenger car output to 3.45mn units, assisted by 6% growth in car exports to 2.64mn units and a 10% rise in new registrations to 1.88mn units.
In contrast, growth in construction steel remained lacklustre with the total price-adjusted value of orders in the construction industry increasing by 4.2% y-o-y in H111 with order growth tailing off by the end of the period. As such, rebar output will grow by just 2.3% to 2.58mn tonnes.
The cooling of export markets as well as a slowdown in the domestic economy will mark a decline in H211 steel production. ArcelorMittal announced in September that it was planning to temporarily shut down its blast furnace at Eisenhüttenstadt due to the slowdown in demand. The company says it is aiming to closely follow market trends following the completion of restocking activities and expects a seasonal downturn in Q411.
The German steel market, which represented 26% of EU finished steel consumption in 2010, is pivotal to overall European steel production. Capacity constraints in H111 helped drive import growth, but the downturn in demand is likely to reverse this trend.
However, the strength of the euro, which BMI has forecast up from an average value of US$1.35/EUR to US$1.43/EUR, should help limit the decline in imports. As currencies in Central and Eastern Europe will either keep pace with the euro or experience modest appreciation, the main beneficiaries of anticipated German import growth will be producers in Asia.
In terms of trade, BMI forecasts 7.0% growth in imports to 24.32mn tonnes and 9.9% growth in exports to 27.86mn tonnes, but a sharp downturn in trade in 2012 as a result of the slowdown that began in H21
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