Taiwan Defence and Security Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 76
Taiwan enjoys strong economic ties with China and a close political relationship with the United States. Officially a ‘province’, it leads an economically strong but uncomfortable existence with the constant presence of international tension. To disrupt ties with China would cause economic loss. However, dependence on the United States for military equipment and their peacekeeping presence maintains a tentative regional stability constantly on the verge of disruption. Relations between Taiwan and mainland China have, in general, grown warmer since the assent to power of the Kuomintang political party in 2008. However, the climate remains uncertain and, under the circumstances, Taiwan remains committed to maintaining its defensive capability.
China has recently expressed a fresh round of disapproval at any move by the US to sell Taiwan newer F- 16 fighter aircraft. The request for 66 late-model Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fighters dates as far back as 2006. The United States President, Barack Obama, is due to reveal by early October 2011, if and how his administration will act in the face of the request. Should the sale go ahead, it will to amount to in excess of USD8bn. As recently as August 2011, a senior US defence official reiterated the United State’s commitment to provide Taiwan with self-defence capabilities but would not comment the likely outcome of the fighter request. One possible alternative scenario to a sale of new fighters is that the US assists with an upgrade to Taiwan’s present F-16A/B fleet.
In August 2011, local papers reported on comments by Lin Yu-fang, a law-maker and member of the national defence committee. Lin claimed that the Taiwanese military had budgeted TWD30mn to development of a long distance precision guided missile that could hit military bases on the south-eastern coastline of mainland China. Details of the project are scanty, with the Taiwanese defence ministry declining to comment on the legislator’s remarks.
Taiwan’s national elections are due in a few months, with opinion polls showing that electoral support remains equally divided between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party. This reinforces our view that the elections are too close to call at the moment. By virtue of the fact that Taiwan’s current economic fortunes are very much tied to China, we strongly believe that a reversal in the cordial cross- Strait relations that have developed over the past few years is unlikely, regardless of the election outcome.
Recently released economic data reaffirm our call for a deceleration of Taiwan’s economy. Not only did Q211 GDP growth come in at 4.9% (down from 6.4% in Q111), industrial output and export orders also showed a worsening trend throughout the quarter. With our outlook on Taiwan’s main trading partners – China, the US and Japan – remaining subdued, we caution that there will be a significant slowdown in Taiwan’s economic growth in the coming months and we cannot rule out a collapse in 2012. We expect headline real GDP growth to remain at 4.3% in 2012, unchanged from 2011, putting us below the consensus of 5.2% and 5.0% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.
Business Monitor International's Taiwan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's defence and security industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Taiwan Security SWOT
Taiwan Defence Industry SWOT
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece
Table: Election Timetable
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The Evolution Of North East Asia
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Taiwan’s Security Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Recent Changes
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Taiwan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Taiwan’s Defence Expenditure; 2008-2015
Table: Taiwan’s Defence Expenditure And % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Profiles
Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC)
CSBC Corporation, Taiwan
Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology
Combined Service Forces
Country Snapshot: Taiwan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030
Section 2: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2005 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC)
- CSBC Corporation
- Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology
- Combined Service Forces
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
