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Taiwan Autos Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 43
In a market dominated by Japanese models, supplies and sales in Taiwan’s auto sector have been affected by Japan’s major earthquake and tsunami since March 2011. Taiwan’s auto market was still shaped by the natural disaster as late as August 2011 and this is likely to continue right to the end of the year, although by this point the impact will be minimal.
Slowing growth in China, and more generally faltering economic growth globally, is likely to remain a concern for Taiwan’s auto industry into the new year, despite the fact that export orders in mid-2011 appeared to be buoyant. BMI expects vehicle sales growth to peak during our forecast period to 2015 at 18.97% in 2011, reaching 300,439 units. Sales growth in 2011 comes in lower than the 28.32% seen in 2009 but is higher than the 10.06% registered in 2010 and stronger than the average 9.68% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate forecast between 2012 and 2015.
Vehicle sales jumped by 28.7% y-o-y to 189,000 units in H111, with Q111 recording a majority of sales at 106,000 against 83,000 units in the second quarter, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). The second half of 2011 opened at an above monthly average compared to monthly volumes in H111, with a total of 38,610 units sold in July 2011, according to the Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC). Sales in July 2011 increased by 7.9% y-o-y and 19% on the previous month, the figures showed.
Although much of the disruption to Japanese imports to Taiwan has eased as of August 2011, capacity has not entirely returned to normal levels. Hotai Motor estimated that Toyota’s assembly plants in Japan managed to return to 90% of production capacity by early August 2011, leaving the Taiwanese dealer with a shortfall of around 2,000 finished units. The lingering shortfall in units appears to be a result of Japanese authorities’ continued power rationing, with full capacity not expected to return until Q411.
While we expect to see production and sales to post healthy growth rates in 2011-2015, auto exports are to remain stagnant in 2011 at a 0.7% growth rate to 37,172 units after surging four-fold in 2010. BMI expects vehicle export growth to pick up slightly but remain within the 3% mark y-o-y beyond 2011. After surging to 36,914 units in 2010 against 9,655 in the previous year, exports will remain lower than 40,000 units until 2014.
Business Monitor International's Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's automotive industry.
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