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Morocco Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 78
Business Monitor International's Morocco Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Morocco's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: While the depreciation of the local tender will negatively impact market growth in US dollar terms, the roll-out of the insurance scheme and the elevated inflation will continue to push up local currency valuations. BMI envisages that the market will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.11% between 2010 and 2015, with per-capita expenditure rising to US$67 by the end of this period, which is more than double the current level.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Pharmaceuticals: MAD8.24bn (US$1.05bn) in 2010 to MAD8.96bn (US$1.04bn) in 2011; +8.7% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to lower historical data and depreciation of the dirham.
Healthcare: MAD43.10bn (US$5.47bn) in 2010 to MAD47.28bn (US$5.49bn) in 2011; +9.7% in local currency terms and +0.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q311 due to the increase in spending associated with the RAMED scheme.
Medical devices: MAD1.66bn (US$210mn) in 2010 to MAD1.79bn (US$208mn) in 2011; +8.0% in local currency terms and -1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q311 due to lower historical data and depreciation of the dirham.
Business Environment Rating:
In Q411, the attractiveness of Morocco's pharmaceutical business environment rose one place, and is now ranked 11th, out of the total of 19 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa region (MEA). On a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, its overall score improved by 3.3%. Globally, Morocco ranks 61st out of the 84 markets included in BMI's ranking matrix.
Key Trends & Developments:
In August 2011, the Moroccan Ministry of Health closed 13 hospitals as they were unable to fulfil certain hygienic standards, reported Magharebia.com. The health violations included operating rooms with windows facing gardens, a shortage of oxygen cylinders and usage of nonsterile equipment. Health Minister Yasmina Baddou announced that the clinics would be allowed to reopen if they fulfilled the required hygiene standards.
BMI Economic View:
Upward pressure on food prices looks set to push headline consumer price index (CPI) in Morocco to higher-than-expected levels in 2011. Heavy government subsidisation of food had restrained inflation through H111, but the July figures suggest that these subsidies have failed to counteract the inflationary pressure arising from other social spending measures. As a consequence, BMI has raised its forecast for average inflation in 2011 from 2% to 2.5%. The prospect of more pronounced inflationary pressures will be of some concern to the Moroccan government, and is likely to place further strain on already stretched government finances, especially given the roll-out of the RAMED scheme, combined with the recent wage hikes and the handing out of the subsidy payments.
BMI Political View:
The February 20 protest movement is likely to intensify its efforts at mobilising anti-government sentiment over the coming weeks. The King's efforts to placate activists with minor reforms will not satisfy demonstrators. The relatively small scale of the disorder means his rule will not be seriously threatened, but it is possible that unrest will grow and extend beyond the coming parliamentary elections, thus increasing wider political risk to investors.
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