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Argentina Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 48
Business Monitor International's Argentina Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's Power industry.
BMI View:
Nuclear energy is likely to account for the single biggest area of expansion for Argentina's electricity supply, although the short-to-medium-term outlook remains dominated by hydro and gas and coal-fired generation. With the country's gas resources dwindling, it makes sense to avoid rising import dependency. Renewables will play an increasing role but Argentina has few options if the nuclear programme falters.
The goal is for 15% of Argentina's power to come from nuclear sources by 2025, according to official estimates. The Atucha II plant should be fully operational by the end of 2011 and Argentina will start work in late 2012 to extend the shelf life of the Embalse plant, which came on line in 1984. This involves a small expansion of capacity. In support of its nuclear ambitions, the country is resuming uranium mining.
A commitment to the development of the Atucha II nuclear plant is imminent. During 2011-2015, Argentina's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.56%, reaching 129.1TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 6.5% gain in coal-fired and a 3.6% rise gasfired generation, accompanied by annual increases in excess of 6% for renewables-based electricity supply.
Industry observers believe Argentina has the scope to expand its hydro-electric capacity significantly, having so far exploited less than a quarter of its estimated potential. Wind power is also seeing a rise in investment and its potential contribution to the electricity supply. Following forecast real GDP increase of 7.0% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.7% between 2011 and 2020.
The population is expected to rise from 41.0mn to 44.4mn during 2011-2020, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 113.3TWh to 126.0TWh by 2015, rising further to 138.5TWh by 2020. During 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 3.04%, but it will slow later in the decade to average 1.92% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend, Argentina's power supply shortfall is likely to increase over the short term, but should fall appreciably later in the decade as new capacity kicks in. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from about 14% will help balance the market.
The theoretical net import requirement by 2015 is forecast at 14.0TWh, but it should be no more than 11.4TWh by 2020.
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