|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Cambodia Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 49
BMI View:
The major player in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result that huge expansion of capacity can be expected from around 2015 onwards as hydro-, gas- and coal-based scheme are brought into play. This will leave the country with plentiful spare generation, even if there are several years of double-digit demand growth.
Neighbouring Vietnam, which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make use of Cambodia’s export capability.
Hydro-power expansion is already under way and there is a long queue of potential projects with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based supply likely from around 2015.
Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the use of renewables is set to rise rapidly from a low base. New coal-fired stations are also in the planning stage, with Cambodia keeping a long-term eye on the possible use of nuclear energy.
During the period 2011-2015, Cambodia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 54.0%, reaching 7.9TWh. Driving this growth is a planned new gas-fired scheme that should enter service at the end of the forecast period. Oil-fired generation growth is set to average just 1.1% per annum, with non-hydro renewables raising its annual contribution by more than 17.0%.
In 2010-2019 some 2GW of power generating capacity is planned to be added to the network and new transmission and distribution infrastructure is to be built. This is a particularly ambitious programme and BMI is assuming that installed capacity of an estimated 425MW in 2011 will have risen to 1.06GW by 2015 – and to at least 1.85GW by 2020.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 4.50%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.90% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 15.3mn to 17.7mn during the period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 1.52TWh to 2.25TWh in 2015, climbing further to 3.67TWh by 2020.
During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 9.94%, but accelerating later in the decade to an average 10.32% in 2016-2020.
Thanks to the forecast rapid rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds significantly the underlying demand trend, Cambodia should develop a large supply surplus that provides the basis for sustainable power exports.
A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 12.6% will help strengthen the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2015 is put at 4.7TWh, which could be virtually doubled by 2020.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
