Pakistan Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 52
BMI View:
Pakistan has a potentially varied and rich menu of power options from which to choose. There is vast untapped hydro and renewables capacity available, but it remains to be seen if the investment commitment is available. In the meantime, gas-fired generation should grow steadily, backed up by coal-fuelled power and a modest nuclear reactor programme.
China in June 2010 stated that it is likely to move forward with plans to provide and finance the construction of two new nuclear reactors in Pakistan. The move prompted international concerns, owing to Pakistan's non-adherence to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
China is keen to strengthen relations through power investments, both in the form of hydro schemes and the supply of reactor technology and equipment. If Pakistan can find sufficient backing for hydro and renewables projects, it may be able to avoid much of the nuclear-related controversy.
During 2011-2015, Pakistan's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.19%, reaching 117.1TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 7.7% gain in hydroelectric use and a 4.0% rise in gas-fired generation, offsetting a 0.2% average decline in oil-fired generation and augmenting a sub-2.0% increase in coal-fired electricity supply.
Dramatic growth from a low base for renewables can be expected from around 2013.
A government planning commission has warned that, unless power production capacity is increased by 143GW in a phased manner by 2030, it will not be possible for the country to sustain higher growth rates in the long run. Pakistan is looking for US$8bn of private power project investment to meet its mediumterm target.
Pakistan has huge potential for wind power, with the US government estimating 130GW of wind potential. Pakistan has huge hydro-electric potential of an estimated 42GW, but currently boasts under 7GW of installed capacity.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 2.4%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.7% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to rise steadily from the current level of 177mn to 194mn during 2011-2015, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 77.9TWh to 90.3TWh.
During 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 3.4%, accelerating somewhat later in the decade to an average 3.8% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds somewhat the underlying demand trend, Pakistan has the potential for a modest power supply surplus. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 21.5% will help balance the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2015 is put at 2.2TWh, which could increase slightly by 2020.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
OECD Markets To Underperform, Coal and Nuclear Under Scrutiny
Regional Industry Overview
In For A Sharp Expansion Of Generation And Consumption
Nuclear Power In Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Country Snapshot (Macro)
Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Pakistan Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Pakistan Total Generation Data
Table: Pakistan Total Generation Data
Table: Pakistan Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Table: Pakistan Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Electricity Consumption
Table: Pakistan Total Consumption Data
Table: Pakistan Total Consumption Data
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Pakistan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data
Table: Pakistan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data
Table: Pakistan Trade Data
Table: Pakistan Trade Data
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Projects Energy And Utilities
Business Environment
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Pakistan Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry – Data Methodology
Generation And Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
- Water And Power Development Authority
- Karachi Electric Supply Corporation
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