Peru Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
- ID: 1941576
- October 2011
- Region: Peru
- 39 Pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI is expecting healthy growth in Peru in 2011, and is also bullish about the medium-term outlook, which means the operating environment for the freight transport sector should be supportive.
Despite Ollanta Humala's victory in the presidential elections, the outlook of the economy is believed to remain positive, boosted by good consumer demand and a growing mining sector. As a clearer message from Humala with regards to his economic policy is awaited, BMI maintains its real GDP growth forecasts of 6.2% in 2011 and 4.9% in 2012.
Headline Industry Data:
- Throughput at Callao is expected to grow 6.5% in 2011 to 18.57mn tonnes.
- Air freight is predicted to grow by 8.5% to 245mn tonnes in 2011.
- Total Peruvian trade (imports+exports) will remain strong in 2011, with real term growth of 11.5%.
Key Industry Trends:
Callao Concession Faces More Scrutiny From Incoming Administration
Concerns are mounting about the future of APM Terminals' Muelle Norte container terminal concession at Peru's Callao, the country's biggest port, following reports that the new administration is to take a closer look at the concession. Although the announcement has raised fears about Ollanta Humala's stance on foreign direct investment, BMI maintains its view that the president will pursue a more moderate policy stance than many investors had initially feared.
Peru's Push To Become Gateway To Asia Continues
Peru's push to position itself as South America's 'gateway to Asia' continues, with private investment promotion agency Proinversión expected to award a tender for the much-feted transcontinental railway project by the first week of November 2011. The news bolsters BMI's view that Peru has the potential to become a regional logistics centre, providing strong growth opportunities for shippers and shipping lines. BMI believes that when completed, the railway will allow Peru to take advantage of Brazil's rapidly increasing raw material exports to China.
Key Risks To Outlook:
BMI believes risks to its Peruvian freight transport forecasts are now slightly to the upside. Peruvian markets have staged an impressive recovery since Ollanta Humala's victory in the presidential election on June 5 caused a sharp sell-off across all asset classes. This underpins BMI's core view that the near-term risks associated with a Humala victory have been to rather overblown, as it is looking increasingly possible that the new government will pursue a much more moderate economic policy path than was originally feared. Further upside risks come from Peru's strong consumer story and the country's growing mining sector. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Peru Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Peru Political SWOT
Peru Economic SWOT
Peru Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes)
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Peru's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Peru's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Short Term Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Table: Peru - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Ferrocarril Central Andino
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts