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India Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's India Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's power industry.
BMI View: India has all options open to it in terms of meeting rising power demand. As a result, capacity and supply growth will be spread among coal- and gas-fired thermal, hydro-power, nuclear and wind/solar power. There is no shortage of international investment to support the efforts of domestic companies.
During the period 2011-2015, India’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 6.63%, reaching 1,217TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 16.7% gain in gas-fired generation and a 24.6% rise in nuclear energy, accompanied by annual increases in excess of 20% for renewables-based supply.
India is actively promoting nuclear power as a clean and efficient source of electricity generation. Many of the major developments taking place in the Indian electricity sector recently involve nuclear power. Independent sources forecast that India will add up to 11GW of new nuclear energy capacity by 2020. Hydro-electric power represents some 17% of India’s total installed generating capacity, with the country currently ranked sixth in the world in terms of hydro-power. There is plenty of hydro-electric capacity in the construction and planning stages, according to the Indian government. In particular, hydro-power development in the Brahmaputra river basin in eastern India is expected to result in several large power plants, which could add nearly 30GW to capacity.
India's theoretical solar potential is said to be about 5,000TWh per annum, or some 600GW of potential installed capacity. This far exceeds forecast demand, but solar generating costs are currently too high for rapid expansion. However, solar is likely to form a key part of longer-term energy policy. There is also wind power potential and some scope for biomass. India hopes to double wind power generation capacity over the next decade. By 2022, the government is planning to have more than 20GW of wind generating capacity.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 7.56%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.65% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 1.19bn to 1.32bn during the period 2011-2020, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 730TWh to 945TWh by 2015, rising further to 1,321TWh by 2020. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.63%, but accelerating somewhat later in the decade to an average 6.94% in 2016-2020.
According to the Indian government, massive energy investment is required to achieve targeted economic expansion. To deliver sustained GDP growth of 8% until 2031-2032, primary energy supply needs to grow to up to four times current consumption, installed electricity generating capacity needs to increase six or sevenfold and the current coal requirement needs to triple.
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