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Malaysia Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 61
Business Monitor International's Malaysia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's power industry.
BMI View: If investment levels remain on target, Malaysia could increase its net power export capability, with Indonesia keen to become a customer for surplus electricity. Nuclear remains on the ‘wish list’, but near-term supply expansion relies largely on thermal and hydro schemes, with renewables growing rapidly from a low base.
The government has recently given the go-ahead to begin identifying suitable sites for the country's first nuclear power plant, with the aim of going online in 2021. A budget of US$7bn budget has reportedly been allocated to the nuclear scheme, which, according to Peter Chin Fah Kui, Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water, is expected to start operations in 2021. This is arguably an optimistic timeframe for the completion of Malaysia’s first reactors.
During the period 2011-2015, Malaysia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5.67%, reaching 140.6 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth are annual 6.70% and 7.94% gains in coal-fired and renewables generation, augmenting a 5.55% average increase in gas-fired electricity supply.
As with other regional gas-producing countries, Malaysia is torn between maximising its important export revenues from the fuel and exploiting it as the basis for power generation growth. The country could even end up with some liquefied natural gas (LNG) import schemes for certain geographically remote power projects, rather than building costly local supply infrastructure.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 4.02%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.85% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to rise slightly from the current level of 28.3mn to around 30.0mn during the period 2011-2015, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 106.4TWh to 133.0TWh. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.54%, but slowing somewhat later in the decade to an average 5.44% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds slightly the underlying demand trend, Malaysia’s power supply surplus of around 0.5TWh should increase steadily. A stable percentage of transmission and distribution losses of around 3.5-4.0% will help balance the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2015 is put at 2.2TWh, which could have doubled by 2020.
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