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Bahrain Retail Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 71
Business Monitor International's Bahrain Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's retail industry.
BMI’s Q411 Bahrain Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will fall from an expected BHD0.68bn (US$1.81bn) in 2011 to BHD0.66bn (US$1.77bn) by 2015. This is a reflection both of the political uncertainty in the country and of the deteriorating outlook for the global economy as we head into the middle part of the forecast period.
Bahrain’s nominal GDP in 2011 is forecast to be US$35.53bn, with real GDP growth expected to decline to 0.5% (from 4.5% in 2010) as political and economic difficulties persist. Average annual GDP growth of 4.6% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015.
Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Information’s tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals rose by an average of 10-15% a year over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries. Before the political unrest, tourism arrivals were forecast to rise by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next decade.
The annual Formula One (F1) grand prix in Sakhir has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004, and its cancellation in 2011 undoubtedly had a knock-on effect on retail sales. However, its reinstatement on the 2012 F1 calendar is good news for the retail sector.
In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.7% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. In 2010, 72.7% of the population was estimated to be economically active but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band fell by 39.9%. The very high level of urbanisation in Bahrain is an important factor. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban and this rose to an estimated 91% in 2010. About 89% of the population live in the cities of Manama and Muharraq.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include automotives, with sales forecast to rise by nearly 17% from an expected 49,157 units in 2011 to 57,300 units by 2015. However, 2011 has been difficult, with H111 sales down by 50-70% on the same period last year, according to Gulf News.
With the Bahraini consumer electronics market well positioned to function as an electronics trading hub, particularly between India and the Far East, sales are predicted to increase from an expected US$0.63bn in 2011 to nearly US$0.80bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of more than 26%. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to rise by 39.0% over the forecast period, increasing from a US$22.0mn in 2011 to US$30.0mn by 2015.
Retail sales for BMI's set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2011 are predicted to amount to US$255.86bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is forecast at US$722.41bn. In 2011, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 56.2% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.8%. By 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.3%. For Bahrain, the estimated 2011 market share of 0.7% is expected to decrease to 0.5% by 2015.
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