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Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 62
Business Monitor International's Venezuela Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's retail industry.
The Q411 BMI Venezuela Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by an average 20.2% a year in local currency terms between 2011 and 2015, from VEB249.87bn (US$116.51bn) to VEB500.08bn (US$233.18bn). Although hyperinflation, and the country’s first currency devaluation since 2005 make the outlook less certain, BMI expects an expanding population, rising disposable income and easier access to consumer credit to have positive effects on Venezuela’s retail sales over the long term.
Venezuela’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$301.88bn in 2011, with real GDP growth of 1.9% forecast for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 2.4% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. The UN described 63.8% of the Venezuelan population as economically active in 2005, with 37.8% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. By 2015, the proportion aged 20-44 is predicted to be 38.5%, and 65.5% of the population is expected to be economically active.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, automotive sales are forecast to increase by 23.6% over the period, from US$0.55bn in 2011, to US$0.68bn by 2015, following the severe slump in 2009. BMI expects the sector to return to positive growth in 2011 for the first time since Q109, which will drive sales up to 133,066 units.
Consumer electronic sales are expected to grow from US$3.24bn in 2011 to US$3.68bn by 2015, a rise of 13.6%. Venezuela is not one of the largest markets in the region but the low household penetration of many products suggests there is latent growth potential. The market offers continued growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (less than 15% penetration), notebook computers and LCD television sets.
Retail sales for BMI's Latin American universe in 2011 are expected to reach US$1,338bn, based on varying national definitions. Based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, total consumer spending for the region, , is predicted to be US$3,161bn. Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for an estimated 73.9% of regional retail sales in 2011, with the two countries still likely to account for 72.5% of all retail sales in the region by 2015. For Venezuela, the predicted 2011 market share of 8.7% is expected to rise to 11.9% by 2015.
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