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Viewing report
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Croatia Tourism Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 63
Recovery in the tourism sector, which began in 2010, continued in 2011. Data for the first eight months of 2011 show foreign tourist arrivals grew by a relatively favourable 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). There have been very sharp swings in monthly growth rates though, with foreign visitors falling by 9% y-o-y in May but rising by over 22% in June y-o-y. Domestic tourism was rather subdued over January-August 2011, with tourists up by just 1.7% y-o-y. Overall, foreign and domestic tourist numbers increased by 6.8% y-oy. In Q211, conference tourism recorded strong growth, with 1,718 meetings held in Croatia, up by about 19% y-o-y. The meetings were attended by 128,967 participants, an increase of nearly 11% y-o-y. The number of foreign participants, as a proportion of the total, increased to 19.4% from 17% in Q210, while absolute numbers rose to about 25,000, up by 23% y-o-y after a 21% y-o-y increase in Q111.
Hospitality
The most recent available figures, for January-August 2011, show reasonable growth in the hospitality sector, mainly on the back of foreign tourism. Total tourist nights increased by 6% y-o-y, with foreign tourist nights (accounting for 91% of the total) up by 6.4% y-o-y. Tourist nights by domestic residents rose by a more subdued 2.4% y-o-y. During the first seven months of 2011, the top four source markets were Germany, Slovenia, Austria and the Czech Republic, and they all recorded positive growth of 5-9% y-o-y.
Industry Forecast Scenario
The annual growth forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2011 is largely unchanged at around 6%. Growth in arrivals is expected to slow moderately in 2012. Considering that the majority of visitors come from the eurozone (the top five source markets in 2010 were Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Austria and the Czech Republic, which combined accounted for about 55% of all arrivals), economic conditions in the region are crucial for the outlook to the tourism sector. BMI has revised down the eurozone real GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% in 2011 (from 1.9%) and 1.2% in 2012 (from 1.7%), with downgrades also to growth forecasts for Germany and Italy. Growth in Germany is forecast at 3.1% in 2011 and 1.3% in 2012, while Italian growth is forecast at 0.8% and 0.7% over the same years. BMI's short-term forecast is for modest appreciation of the kuna against the euro and our year-end forecast of HRK7.3000/EUR in 2012 is unchanged.
Zagreb Airport
Croatia's main international airport, Zagreb Airport, achieved strong growth in passenger traffic of over 15% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2011.
Croatia Airlines
The national flag carrier, Croatia Airlines, recorded a robust increase in scheduled passenger numbers of almost 19% y-o-y in January-July 2011, reaching just over 1.0mn customers. Considering that annual passenger traffic declined for the second year running in 2010, the turnaround is particularly favourable.
Accommodation Developments
In Q311, Hilton Worldwide signed a management agreement with Zagreb-based BP Pluto for its first DoubleTree by Hilton hotel in Croatia: the 152-room DoubleTree by Hilton Zagreb. In September 2011, it was reported that a EUR350mn Brijuni Riviera development project had started. The project includes the construction of luxury hotels and sports centres on the western coast of Istria, next to the Brijuni islands. Extensive redevelopment of the Medical Rehabilitation Hospital Varaždinske Toplice (and the spa) should provide a boost to health tourism in the region. The project, costing approximately EUR200mn, includes the construction of a new hotel and medical facilities.
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