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Viewing report
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United States Autos Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 39
Overall light vehicle sales in the US achieved steady growth of 7.5% y-o-y in August, taking sales for the first eight months of the year to 8.46mn units, up 10.5%. Nevertheless, the market's potential was restricted to some extent by an ongoing shortage of some passenger car models from the leading Japanese brands, as well as Hurricane Irene, which closed some dealerships towards the end of the month. While these are factors which can be overcome in the remaining months of the year, the ongoing economic uncertainty hanging over the country has led BMI to stick to the full-year sales forecast of 12.5mn units.
In addition to the inventory shortages, there is also likely to be some element of consumer caution attached to the lower passenger car sales growth, even though it is still BMI's view that the economy can avoid recession in 2011. Indeed, a positive outcome in terms of consumer resilience was an increase in retail sales by Chrysler and General Motors Company (GM), reducing the reliance on fleet sales.
Chrysler reported 42% growth in retail sales and GM achieved a 22% increase. Looking towards the rest of 2011, better sales are not expected in September as potential growth in August was curtailed. Seasonal trends also point to higher monthly sales towards the end of the year. However, it is still believed there are downside risks to keep in mind, as economic uncertainty weighs on consumers, and big ticket purchases will be first to suffer.
Both GM and Chrysler reported double-digit growth overall in August 2011, taking advantage of the problems faced by some of their Japanese rivals. However, while Toyota Motor and Honda Motor continue to struggle, Nissan Motor underlined its relatively speedy recovery from the Japanese disaster, with growth of 19.2% in August, resulting in growth of 13.6% for 8M11. The company's segment results are mixed when comparing the two periods, however, with car sales up 21.7% in August compared with light truck growth of 15%, while over the first eight months, light truck sales were up 14.3% and car sales up 13.3%. American Suzuki Motor also seems to be back to normal, with growth of 31.6% for August and 19.1% in 8M11, while Mitsubishi Motors North America reported 86% growth in August and 64.9% for the year-to-date.
In the supplier segment, Cooper-Standard has released a statement outlining its plans to find 'various strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value', not ruling out a possible merger or sale. The company emerged from bankruptcy in May 2010, and has successfully increased its revenue and earnings in H111. However, with a heavy exposure to North America and Europe, considered particularly volatile regions for the auto sector at present, and a small presence in the high-growth Asia markets, BMI questions what a potential buyer might gain.
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