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Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 69
Bahrain Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's oil and gas industry.
Bahrain’s real GDP rose by an estimated 4.5% in 2010, with average annual growth of 4.1% forecast in 2010-2015. Consumption of oil is set to continue its upward trend along with moderate growth of the economy, reaching 52,000b/d by 2015. Crude output is now averaging about 44,000b/d, with the potential to reach 60,000b/d by 2016. Gas output is set to increase from 15bcm in 2010 to just under 17bcm by 2015, implying an import requirement of just under 2bcm by the end of the forecast period. We forecast that Bahrain will account for just 0.6% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing negligibly to supply. Bahrain's estimated share of regional gas consumption is expected to fall to 3.68% by 2015 from 4.27% in 2010. Its share of gas production is put at 2.8% in 2015.
We are forecasting Bahraini oil production to rise to over 83,000b/d by 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by about 26%, with the country using 58,000b/d by 2020. Gas consumption is expected to climb towards 19bcm by 2020, with production rising to the same level. Plans are afoot to set up LNG import capacity by the middle of the decade, but our gas forecasts do not take these into account, pending further project progress. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
The 2010 full-year outturn for OPEC crude was US$77.45/bbl, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
In light of the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in H111, as well as the oil supply effects of the Libyan civil war, we have raised our benchmark OPEC Basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.9/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$97.50/bbl for 2012. We expect Brent to average US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$101.50/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term (2014-20) price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC Basket) in place.
Bahrain is in fourth place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country is also ranked fourth in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, just ahead of Iraq. It has held this position, in spite of its modest oil and gas reserves, thanks to an improving production growth outlook and a lower risk profile than other Middle Eastern producers. There are low reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and modest non-state involvement in the upstream segment. The country’s risk environment is sound, but this may prove insufficient to help Bahrain move further up the league table. Bahrain is in fourth place in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, just behind Iran.
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