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Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 112
Brazil Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's oil and gas industry.
This latest Brazil Oil & Gas Report from BMI highlights the exciting growth opportunities in the country as well as some of the challenges it will face.
BMI forecasts that oil and other liquids production will grow rapidly from 2.69mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to more than 4.4mn b/d by 2015 as state run Petrobras and it international partners start to bring major subsalt projects onstream. Oil consumption will also rise quickly, from 2.654mn b/d in 2010 to 3.118mn b/d in 2015; however, with supply outpacing demand, Brazil will become an increasingly important supplier to global markets. Oil exports are expected to top 1.2mn b/d by 2015.
Brazil’s gas sector will also benefit as new projects come onstream in the country’s subsalt region, though (unlike oil) consumption is expected to outpace new supply forcing the country to import more of the fuel over the coming years. BMI forecasts Brazilian gas production will rise nearly 80% from 12.6bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to 22.6bcm by 2015. Over the same period, strong economic growth and greater gas utilisation in power generation will cause gas consumption to rise from 25.1bcm to 37.3bcm, implying an import requirement of 14.72bcm. The majority of the imported fuel will enter the country via a pipeline from Bolivia, although we do also expect liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to rise.
Over the long term, the major story in Brazil’s oil and gas sector will be the country’s role as an increasingly significant supplier of oil to international markets. We forecast Brazilian oil exports reaching 2.46mn b/d by 2020, a remarkable rise considering that the country was a net oil importer until 2008. In terms of gas, the country is expected to remain a significant importer, though deepwater gas projects and associated gas from subsalt projects, which will come onstream towards the latter half of the decade, will see import requirements fall slightly. We forecast gas imports hitting a forecast-period peak of 15.77bcm in 2016 and then falling to about 11.6bcm by 2020.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami which crippled the country in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$95.00/bbl in 2012; US$106/bbl for Brent in 2011 falling to US$97.62/bbl in 2012; and US$95.30/bbl in 2011 rising to US$97.39/bbl in 2012.
Brazilian real GDP rose by an estimated 7.5% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.4% forecast in 2010-2015. Partly privatised deepwater specialist Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras) will continue to team up with international oil companies (IOCs) to support output growth efforts and will dominate domestic production.
Brazil holds first place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country is in a virtual tie with Colombia for first place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Brazil’s score benefits from the size of the oil resource base, output growth prospects, attractive licensing regime and competitive environment. Although some weak points exist in the country’s risk ratings, its position at the head of the regional league table continues to look unassailable and it would be no surprise to see it pull clear of Colombia in the upstream rating as Petrobras and its partners prove the ability to bring major subsalt projects onstream. Brazil also holds the top slot in BMI’s downstream ratings, ten points clear of Argentina. This reflects its region-beating oil demand, substantial refining capacity and competitive environment.
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