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Turkey Autos Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 56
Turkey's automotive sector has shown significant potential for growth in recent years, with a 25.87% increase in vehicle production and a 37.32% increase in sales reported in 2010.
As Turkey continues in its efforts to become a regional and global hub for automotive production, growth continued during the first seven months of 2011, as 483,950 new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles were sold, an increase of 42.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). However, as a result of central bank efforts to restrict the credit boom, growth was slower in 7M11, and according to Balkans Business News, analysts expect a 15% decline in demand in August 2011, in comparison to August 2010.
Turkey's geographical position remains an attractive prospect for foreign investors, providing easy access to Europe, North Africa and Asia, and favourable labour relations. During the first six months of the year alone, ThyssenKrupp, Mercedes-Benz, Cummins and Michelin announced investments in the country.
In June 2011, Ford Otosan announced plans to invest EUR205mn to expand the annual production capacity of its Kocaeli facility, and in July 2011, Saf-Holland launched a new local subsidiary in Turkey.
The Turkish government is keen to encourage investment in R&D operations in the country. Furthermore, the formation of a free trade agreement with South Korea should increase the number of automakers and suppliers investing in Turkey, supporting Turkish authorities' medium-term production target of 2mn vehicles each year, and strengthening the country's supply network ahead of plans to develop an indigenous car brand.
Meanwhile, South Korean carmaker Hyundai has reached agreement with Turkish automaker Karsan to assemble its light commercial vehicles from completely knocked down units in the country.
Government responses to inflationary pressures are likely to cause demand to drop in the second half of 2011. However, despite the introduction of a 25% credit growth cap on vehicle sales in March 2011, BMI expects consumer confidence to remain strong, and consumer credit should remain relatively buoyant in the long term. As such, Turkey will remain one of the key performers in the region.
While it is highly unlikely that Turkey's automotive sector will repeat the 37.32% growth in sales seen in 2010, BMI expects new vehicle sales to increase 16.58% in 2011, despite government efforts to limit credit growth.
Between 2012 and 2015, BMI's forecast steady growth of around 10% owing to continued consumer confidence and demand. Similarly, growth in production will slow in 2011 to around 5.02%. Nevertheless, as a result of increased investment, growth should average around 11% between 2012 and the end of BMI's forecast period, reaching 1,747,335 units in 2015.
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BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry
Table: Europe – Top Automotive Suppliers Sales By Region (US$mn), 2010
Business Environment Ratings
Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Turkey Auto Production – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs)
Table: Turkey Auto Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs)
Table: Turkey Auto Ownership Rates – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity
Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- Hyundai Motor
- Ford Otosan
- Hyundai Assan
- Oyak Renault
- Toyota Motor
- Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi
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