Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 68
Croatia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's oil and gas industry.
This latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI comes as Croatian oil consumption begins to show signs of pulling out of the period of stagnation that accelerated followed the onset of the global economic downturn in 2008-2009. After rising steadily from just over 85,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 to 103,000b/d in 2006, Croatian oil consumption fell for three straight years before recovering slightly to just under 95,000b/d in 2010. Consumption should increase to 103,000b/d by 2015, far ahead of production which should fall from 19,500b/d in 2010 to just over 17,600b/d in 2015.
Gas production looks set to peak over the next five years, with production expected to rise from 2.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 to 3.0bcm in 2015. Consumption is also set to rise, from 2.85bcm in 2010 to 4.28bcm by 2015, meaning that Croatia’s import dependency will increase from 0.85bcm of imports to 1.28bcm of import over the same period. This is somewhat more than the 1.11bcm that Croatia was importing as recently as 2000, due to gas production rising from around 1.66bcm at the time.
Longer-term, oil production will fall due to falling discovery levels and a lack of interest from major industry players. BMI expects output to fall from 17,600b/d in 2015 to only 15,900b/d by 2020. This will result in a dramatic increase in imports from 85,600b/d in 2015 to 95,300b/d by 2020.
Consumption will rise steadily from 103,200b/d to 111,200b/d over the five-year period on the back of increasing car ownership and greater willingness to travel.
After its near-term peak, gas consumption is likely to fall from 3.0bcm in 2015, dropping to as little as 2.3bcm by 2020. This will lead Croatia to import record amounts of gas by 2020, with imports rising to 2.9bcm on the back of higher consumption. Consumption, spurred on by increased gas use in power generation, will rise from 4.3bcm to 5.2bcm by 2020.
Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan an increasingly significant factor. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Croatia holds 12th place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies 5th place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is virtually no chance that Croatia can pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Poland are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Croatia Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2008-2015
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d), 2008-2015
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2008-2015
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm), 2008-2015
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm), 2008-2015
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm), 2008-2015
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Croatia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Other Energy
Table: Croatia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Croatia
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Industrija Nafte (INA)
Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
Eni
MOL – Summary
Plinacro – Summary
OMV – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2013-2020
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm), 2013-2020
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm), 2013-2020
Croatia Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- .Industrija Nafte (INA)
- Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
- Eni
- MOL
- Plinacro
- OMV
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