Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 530
BMI's latest Turkey Oil & Gas Report comes at a time that excitement is building over the upstream potential of the Turkish Black Sea. Long recognised as a major transit country, with a vital role to play in future European gas supplies, Turkey now appears increasingly confident that it could also one day become a large oil and gas producer. However, barring major discoveries, BMI remains cautious about Turkey's upstream future. Oil production of 49,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 looks certain to rise only modestly, with 50,000b/d forecast by 2015. This means Turkish oil imports will need to increase as consumption looks set to rise from 591,000b/d in 2010 to 697,000b/d in 2015.
Turkey's growing economy is set to become increasingly gas-hungry over the next five years, with consumption of 35.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 likely to rise to 42.5bcm by 2015. This rate of growth will leave gas production trailing even further behind consumption than it is currently, despite a substantial increase in output. Gas production will rise from 0.6bcm in 2010, to 2.0bcm by 2015, as the country brings small volumes onstream from offshore fields.
Over the longer term, Turkish oil production looks set to fall dramatically in the absence of further discoveries. We expect Turkey to be producing no more than 32,000b/d by 2015, down 36% from 2015, and a 35% reduction on 2010 levels. On the other hand, consumption should continue to rise, due to higher vehicle ownership and growth in the petrochemicals industry. Turkey should be consuming 813,000b/d by 2020 which, when production and refinery processing gain are taken into account, should mean the country will be importing as much as 753,000b/d within 10 years.
Long-term gas consumption growth should be similar to that of oil, and is likely to average 3.2% over the last five years of the decade. Turkey should be consuming 48.4bcm by 2020, up 13.8% on 2015 levels. Gas production growth on the other hand will be far less positive, with Turkey set to be producing only 1.0bcm by 2020, half the level seen in 2015.
Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan an making and increasingly significant contribution. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s, but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than in 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow, and Japan's growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Turkey occupies second place, behind Poland, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It is ranked ninth, behind Russia, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, despite the virtually non-existent oil and gas resource base. Turkey's score reflects an established licensing framework and largely encouraging Country Risk factors. Turkey is joint first, alongside Poland and ahead of the Czech Republic, in BMI's updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores. Its position is thanks largely to high scores for oil demand, retail site intensity, non-state competition, deregulation and nominal GDP.
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Turkey Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Property Rights
Intellectual Property Rights
Corruption
Physical Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Trade Regime
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues And Import Costs
Table: Turkey's Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Other Energy
Table: Turkey's Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Turkey
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Turkey - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
Petrol Ofisi (POAS)
Botas – Summary
BP – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Total – Summary
Turcas – Summary
Transneft – Summary
Perenco – Summary
Aladdin Middle East – Summary
TransAtlantic Petroleum – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
Socar – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Turkey Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
Sources
- Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
- Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
- Petrol Ofisi (POAS)
- Botas
- BP
- Royal Dutch Shell
- ExxonMobil
- Total
- Turcas
- Transneft
- Perenco
- Aladdin Middle East
- TransAtlantic Petroleum
- Gazprom
- Lukoil
- Petrobras
- Socar
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