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Philippines Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 60
Nuclear energy remains a possibility for the Philippines, with plenty of interest from Asian countries in salvaging the unfinished Bataan nuclear plant or building a new facility. There are doubts that the nuclear option will be taken up, particularly in view of the country's vast potential for renewables, the steady expansion of its thermal portfolio and a commitment to additional hydroelectric supply.
The government of the Philippines continues to reshape its power industry and energy portfolio. Stateowned assets are being sold off in order to bring in new investors which will ease the burden on the country to increase its thermal, hydro and geothermal/wind capacity. There is a risk of supply growing too slowly to keep up with demand unless greater commitments are made towards large-scale hydro, renewables and, possibly, nuclear expansion.
During the period 2011-2015, the Philippines' overall power generation is expected to increase by an average of 5.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 88.8TWh by 2015. Driving this growth are forecast average annual gains of 7.6% and 3.6% in gas-fired and hydro generation respectively, as well as an expected 3.5% average increase in renewables-based electricity supply. The government is looking to convert oil-fired plants to gas while expanding the country's geothermal capacity.
An initial assessment by the Philippines Department of Energy (DoE) has placed the country's total wind potential at 76GW (across a 10,000sq km area). Other DoE estimates of renewable energy potential in the country are: 4.41GW from geothermal energy; 147MW from hydro applications in Visayas; 1.78GW from mini-hydros from 888 sites; and an annual potential average of 5.0-5.1kWh/m2/day from solar power.
Following forecast real GDP growth of about 5% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.5% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to increase from the 2011 level of 95.5mn to 102.7mn in 2015, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 63.1TWh to 77.17TWh. Over the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.41%, but we expect it to slow somewhat later in the decade to an average 5.06% over 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net power generation, which broadly matches the underlying demand trend, we do not expect the Philippines' potential power supply shortfall to become a major issue over BMI's forecast period. BMI notes, however, that in order to avoid any shortages or import requirement, investment levels need to rise. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses (forecast at around 13% in 2011) will help balance the market.
The theoretical net import requirement by 2015 is put at 1.6TWh, which could double by 2020.
Philippines Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
OECD Markets To Underperform; Coal and Nuclear Under Scrutiny
Regional Industry Overview
In For A Sharp Expansion Of Generation And Consumption
Table: Nuclear Power In Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Philippines Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Philippines Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Philippines Power Sector
Philippines Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Philippines Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Philippines Total Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020
Table: Philippines Total Consumption Data
Table: Philippines Total Consumption Data
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Philippines Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Philippines Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Key Projects Database
Table: Philippines Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Asia Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Ratings
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Power Industry – Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
- The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo)
- First Gen
- Aboitiz Power
- Ayala Corporation
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