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Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 115
Ukraine’s consumer outlook appears to be improving, although high inflation continues to weigh down on real wages. In fact, BMI note that, measured in US dollar terms, monthly wages remain below 2008 levels even though the return of the positive economic growth has resulted in their recovery since the start of the year. Currently, BMI therefore continue to view Ukraine as one of the least attractive regional markets for food and drinks producers, with the country characterised by both modest rewards and high investment risks, although its longer-term potential is substantial.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2011 per capita food consumption = +9.25%; forecast to 2015 = +55.99%
- 2011 alcoholic drinks sales = +8.61%; forecast to 2015 = +52.13%
- 2011 soft drinks sales = +6.71; forecast to 2015 = +40.62%
- 2011 mass grocery retail = +14.13%; forecast to 2015 = +85.55%
Key Company Trends
Rising Costs of Raw Materials Impacting Performance of the Dairy Industry – Ukrainian dairy company Milkiland recently reduced its projected output for H211, following policy changes in input costs. According to Agri Money, the firm’s raw materials’ costs jumped by 28%. Similarly, cheese producer JSC Pyryatynsky posted a 3.6% growth in Q211 net revenue, but a 3.2% and 42.1% decline in gross and operating profit respectively. As 80% of the country's milk production is carried out by household farmers, rising production costs are likely to affect the economy.
Key Risks To Outlook
Potential Failure to Meet Loan Repayments – The deteriorating relations with Russia, the EU and the US, set against the backdrop of flagging political support at home and an increasingly risk-averse external financial environment, means that tough choices lie in the near term. In particular BMI highlight the risk of a breakdown in the country's International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement, presaging a rockier path for the economy. This, in turn, will hold back much-needed market reforms, which are crucial for Ukraine to improve its investment climate and grease the wheels of growth.
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