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Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 74
Business Monitor International's Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait Oil and Gas's industry.
Kuwaiti GDP rose by an estimated 1.9% in 2010, with an average growth rate of 4.4% in 2010-15. Oil demand is expected to rise from an estimated 354,000b/d in 2010 to 395,000b/d in 2015, somewhat falling behind the pace of economic growth. Despite the absence of near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to increase from an estimated 2.45mn b/d in 2010 to 2.79mn b/d in 2015, subject to OPEC quota compliance.
Gas production should reach 15.2bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 13.1bcm in 2010, through both associated and non-associated gas development. Due to rising power demand, consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 15.9bcm in 2010 to 22.1bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring significant net imports.
BMI forecasts that Kuwait will account for 4.52% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 9.32% of supply. Kuwait's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 4.5%, while its share of production is put at 2.94%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.79%, with the country accounting for 2.46% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
In light of the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in H111, as well as the oil supply effects of the Libyan civil war, BMI has raised its benchmark OPEC Basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$97.50/bbl for 2012. BMI expects Brent to average US$106.00/bbl in 2011 and US$101.50/bbl in 2012. BMI has kept its long-term (2014-20) price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC Basket) in place.
Kuwait takes last place in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The Gulf state holds eighth place, above only Saudi Arabia, in BMI's updated upstream ratings, given that foreign investment access is low. Kuwait's score suffers from strict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy resource position.
Kuwait ranks sixth in BMI's downstream ratings, but may move higher given recent government refinery projects' approval.
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