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United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 89
BMI's Q411 update to the UAE's telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of June 2011. It contains an analysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains our first five-year growth forecast for mobile ARPUs in the UAE, in addition to updated forecast for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors.
In September 2011, fixed-line incumbent and mobile market leader Etisalat launched its LTE network for high-speed broadband services. The LTE-FDD mobile network will cover all major cities in the country in the first deployment phase, with Etisalat promising data download speeds of up to 100Mbps for its customers. More than 700 base stations were upgraded for the LTE network. Etisalat plans to upgrade up to 1,000 base stations by the end of 2011. Second-ranked du intends to launch commercial services by the end of 2011.
According to the TRA, there were 11.180mn mobile subscribers in the UAE at the end of June 2011. This represents growth of 1% q-o-q and 5% y-o-y. Our analysis of the UAE's mobile market is based on overall market data published by the TRA. This is because of the regulator's clear definition of the method used to calculate the number of active subscribers and the use by du of the same method. We, therefore, calculate the number of active subscribers on Etisalat's mobile network by subtracting du's subscriber base of the regulator's overall subscriber base. We have upgraded our mobile growth forecast this quarter following strong net additions during H111, mainly driven by du. We now expect the number of mobile subscribers in the UAE to reach 12.199mn by 2015, reflecting a penetration rate of 235%.
The fixed-line sector recorded positive growth in Q211, albeit it at a significantly slower rate than in the previous quarter. This suggests continued demand for fixed-line connections despite the rapid take-up of mobile services. We have revised our forecast this quarter to reflect this new trend and now expect positive annual growth in the fixed sector over the next five years. The growing popularity of multi-play offerings will be a major growth driver of fixed-line connections in the UAE. By 2015, we expect the number of fixed-line subscriptions to reach to reach 1.876mn, reflecting a penetration rate of 36.1%. That said, it is worth mentioning that the rollout of LTE network services with capacity for high-speed data transmission poses a downside side to the uptake fixed-line services in the UAE.
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