United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 64
Tourism Overview The tourism sector continues to record solid growth in 2011. After a strong performance in Q111, the most recent available data, figures for H111, show that guest numbers at Dubai hotels totalled nearly 4.6mn. We estimate that this represents good growth of about 10% year-on-year (y-o-y). In Abu Dhabi, data for the first seven months of 2011 show a robust 15% y-o-y increase in tourists (including Emirati arrivals) at hotels to over 1.2mn guests. Key source markets France and Germany recorded sizeable growth in visitors of 27% and 17% y-o-y respectively.
There was also a surge in arrivals from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly in July. In H111, in Sharjah, there was modest growth of 3% y-o-y in tourist arrivals (including UAE nationals) at hotels to about 0.8mn. In July, visitor numbers went up 18% y-o-y. As in previous years, European arrivals accounted for 40% of total visitors in H1, while tourists from the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia, and Asia accounted for 29% and 18% respectively. Arrivals from Russia, more than 153,000, which dominates visitors from Europe, by 36% yo- y in H1.
Hospitality The hospitality sector is on course to achieve another good year, after a strong recovery in 2010. BMI estimates that the number of resident nights at Dubai hotels rose solidly in H111 y-o-y. Data for January- July for Abu Dhabi show occupancy levels were up by 10% y-o-y to 70%, while the average length of stay increased by 11% to just under three nights. The UK remained the most important international source market, with a 21% y-o-y increase in guest nights to 354,155. The second key market, the US, recorded 282,510 nights, up by 26% y-o-y.
The third most important market, India, which has been especially targeted by the marketing authorities, provided 235,695 guest nights, rising by a robust 52% yo- y. Average room rates in Abu Dhabi dropped markedly, improving competitiveness. In Sharjah, there was robust growth in H111, with the number of hotel room nights sold totalling 908,309, an increase of 16% y-o-y. The overall occupancy rate was 75%. Figures for July show even more growth of 25% y-o-y in the number of room nights, while the occupancy rate rose to 74% from 69%.
Forecast Scenario Although we have moderated our forecast slightly this quarter, BMI expects annual growth in foreign tourist arrivals to the UAE in 2011 to be little changed compared with a year earlier at nearly 11%. A slight slowdown is anticipated in 2012 but growth should remain relatively strong. The outlook is based on solid economic growth in the Middle East and weak but stable growth in the eurozone (the two major source regions). Our growth forecasts for eurozone have been revised this quarter to 1.9% and 1.7% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Concerning the UK, the top source market for inbound tourists to Dubai in 2009 and 2010, we forecast economic growth of 1.4% (revised down) in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012.
Airlines In July, Dubai-based Emirates signed a code-share agreement with Nigerian carrier Arik Air. From August, Emirates began a non-stop daily service to Copenhagen – the airline's first passenger service to Scandinavia. In January 2012, it will begin its first route to Ireland, with daily flights to Dublin. In February 2012, Emirates' extensive African network will be boosted with the launch of two new destinations: Lusaka (Zambia) and Harare (Zimbabwe) – its 20th and 21st African destinations. In mid- 2011, the flag carrier of Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airways, and Czech Airlines signed a new code-share agreement, effective from September (four Prague-Abu Dhabi flights a week).
In December, Etihad will start services to Chengdu, China's south-west economic hub. From March 2012, Etihad will expand its network in China with daily non-stop, return services between Abu Dhabi and Shanghai (the airline's 70th global destination). In Q211, Sharjah-based Air Arabia recorded growth of 5% y-o-y in passenger traffic. In July, the carrier introduced flights to Gassim (Saudi Arabia) from its primary hub. In October, the airline will start direct services to new destinations in Ukraine: Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, and Donestsk. From November, Air Arabia will offer flights to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UAE Tourism SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015
Market Overview – Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players – UAE Commercial Airlines, 2010
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
Table: Selected Accommodation Projects In The UAE
Regional Case Study: Accor
Tourism Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
The UAE's Security Risks
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Middle East And Africa Security Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Company Profiles
Emirates
Etihad Airways
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- Emirates
- Etihad Airways
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