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Denmark Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 105
While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA). In addition to updated market forecasts and data analysis, we have included operator tables for converged service provision for the first time, detailing the recent performance of the incumbent, TDC's and TeliaSonera's wireline performance.
Following four quarters of successive subscriber losses from Q210 to Q111, losing a total of a quarter of a million subscribers, the mobile market returned to growth in Q211. There were 173,00 net additions, taking the total to 6.836mn. However, with penetration remaining above 120% we do not believe this quarter of net additions signals a return to growth in the market. Instead we expect the market to continue to experience subscriber losses over the medium term, punctuated by quarters of net additions. It is not possible to forecast when inactive subscriber discounting will occur, and we therefore forecast slow steady declines in subscriptions However, in reality we expect quarterly growth to demonstrate considerably more volatility.
Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN technology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as mobile broadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark's fixed-line market will shrink at annual average growth of 5.8%.Within fixed-line we expect VoIP to account for an increasing share of total subscriptions as customers are attracted to the service through bundled service packages including pay-TV and broadband services. By the end of 2015 we expect penetration to fall to 33.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetration rates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmark's fixed broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting subscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles. BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of wireless broadband access technologies.
The use of xDSL fixed broadband services is not yet in decline. However, growth has slowed considerably to about 1.5% a year and it is mobile broadband that now accounts for the majority of net additions. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadband access, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a much smaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become more widely used. In the long term, although we expect slow growth in fixed broadband, we do not expect growth to turn negative because we believe it will be supported by the proliferation of converged services that bundle broadband with pay-TV and fixed voice services. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by 2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of those subscribers.
Business Monitor International's Denmark Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Denmark's telecommunications industry.
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