North Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 90
Uncertainty pervades all four North African states and this is reflected in BMI's Q411 update to this report. Conflict continues in Libya and, although an interim government is now in power, it lacks the ability to begin to seriously tackle the country's massive social, economic and infrastructure problems. We still have no idea how amenable the new government will be to a free and open telecoms sector. Elections are scheduled in Tunisia for late October. While the process of transition has been remarkably smooth so far, the possibility remains that opposition to reforms could still materialise and this weighs on our outlook regarding political risk.
The political situation in Algeria is rather more stable, although we continue to forecast considerable potential for sudden outbreaks of civil unrest that could unseat the government and the economy. The government's tough stance towards Orascom Telecom's ownership of mobile operator Djezzy and its continued harassment of that operator for unpaid taxes and price promotions do not bode well for future prospects regarding foreign investment in this market. Djezzy has been valued at around US$7bn, but it seems that the government may baulk at paying a high price for ousting Orascom. We expect deliberations to continue for some time. This is unfortunate, as Algeria will be tendering 3G licences in Q411. Djezzy must now consider whether or not to bid for assets that will only add to its value and therefore make it less appealing to the government.
Although, political risks weigh heavily on the region, we continue to expect robust growth in the mobile sector in particular. Broadband is also expanding, although mobile broadband appears to be a real growth engine, particularly in Morocco. BMI continues to believe that the effect of the upheaval will be more long term, particularly in encouraging future outside investment and overall ICT policy.
North African markets remain at the bottom of our Business Environment Ratings, with only Iran showing weaker scores. The low rating is from a combination of weak Industry Rewards and Country Risk scores. Libya has the dubious honour of holding the poorest score for Industry Risks, a score which considers the independence of the national regulator.
Business Monitor International's North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on North Africa's telecommunications industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
North Africa Mobile SWOT
North Africa Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT
Business Environment
Middle East And North Africa
North Africa
Middle East And North Africa Q411 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: North Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Fixed Line
Table: North Africa – Fixed-Line Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Internet And Broadband
Table: North Africa – Internet And Broadband Sectors – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Algeria
Table: Algeria Mobile Market, Q211
Table: Algeria – Mobile Blended ARPUs, 2009-2011 (user/month)
Libya
Table: Libya Mobile Market, Q211
Morocco
Table: Morocco Mobile Market, Q211
Tunisia
Table: Tunisia – Mobile Market, Q211
3G
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Libya
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Mobilis
Table: Nedjma
Table: Djezzy
Table: Maroc Telecom
Table: Meditel
Table:TunisieTelecom
Table: Tunisiana
Fixed Line
Algeria
Table: Growth Of Fixed Lines By Technology, 2001-2009 (‘000)
Libya
Morocco
Table: Moroccan Fixed-Line Market, 2009-2011
Tunisia
Internet
Algeria
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: North African Regulatory Environment
Algeria
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players – North Africa Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Huawei Technologies
Table: Huawei Technologies – Key Financial Data (US$mn)
Huawei – Recent Contract Wins/Developments In Middle East & North Africa
Company Profiles
Algérie Télécom
Maroc Télécom
Tunisie Télécom
Orascom Telecom
Wataniya Telecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed-Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Macroeconomic Data Tables
Table: Algeria – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Table: Morocco – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Table: Tunisia – Economic Activity, 2006-2014
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Algérie Télécom
- Maroc Télécom
- Tunisie Télécom
- Orascom Telecom
- Wataniya Telecom
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