Portugal Telecommunications Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 102
The Q411 update to BMI‘s Portugal telecommunications market report contains revised five-year forecasts for the country's mobile subscriber and ARPU, broadband and fixed-line telephony markets. Our forecasts and market analysis are based on operator and regulator data for the period ended June 2011. Operator data draws on releases from the country's fixed-line incumbent Portugal Telecom, which also owns the leading mobile operator TMS, and Portugal Telecom's rivals in the mobile market, Vodafone Portugal and Optimus (owned by Portuguese broadband operator Sonaecom). The Q411 update to the Portugal report also includes operator tables for converged service operators for the first time.
Operator data for Q211 shows that the market continued to lose subscribers for the second successive quarter. After experiencing a net loss of about 67,000 customers in the three months to 31 March 2011, the mobile market experienced a further loss of 108,000 subscribers in Q211 . This takes the total loss to 175,000 in the six months to the end of June 2011. The loss of customers appears to have affected prepaid users and postpaid subscribers. The loss of customers is primarily due to inactive prepaid users being discounted from the market, however it is likely Portugal's recession is also having a negative effect on the mobile market. BMI is expecting a contraction of 1.9% for Portugal's economy over the whole of 2011, followed by a 1.8% contraction in 2012.
We have revised our mobile market forecast this quarter down and now believe it is likely it will experience negative growth for the first time. We forecast the mobile market subscriber base to contract by 0.6% in 2011 to 17.044mn. However, it should be noted that operators may continue to discount inactive subscribers, which may result in a lower figure. This could also be exacerbated by the challenges ahead for Portugal's economy. We forecast the market will have just over 17.5mn subscribers by the end of 2015, equivalent to a penetration rate of 163.7%.
BMI built on its analysis of Portugal's wireline markets in this quarterly update by inserting converged service operator tables for Portugal Telecom, Grupo Zon and Sonaecom. The inclusion of converged service operator tables reflects the growing importance of converged services to the fixed-line sector. Not only are customers attracted to pay-TV and broadband packages, but the ability to offer converged services has also positively affected the ability of operators to retain their fixed-line subscriber bases. In the fixed-network segment Portugal Telecom has performed particularly strongly, with its fibre TV service and fibre broadband, which have both outperformed the market.
A notable development in the Portuguese telecoms sector this quarter has been the decline in dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions i.e. using a data card or dongle, not a smartphone. Total dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions declined by 7% y-o-y to 1.181mn in Q211, down from 1.27mn in Q210.
Although we did not expect mobile broadband to overtake fixed subscriptions, the level at which subscriber growth has peaked is a surprise considering Portugal's relatively rural population. However, we believe the economic environment in combination with the expansion of fixed-network infrastructure, particularly by Portugal Telecom, is the cause of the decline.
Looking ahead, BMI believes the growth prospects for mobile broadband are brighter, after Portugal's telecoms industry regulator Autoridade Nacional de Comunicacoes (ANACOM) approved a draft regulation for the auction of frequency rights in the 450 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2.1 GHz and 2.6 GHz frequency bands. According to these rules, new entrants will get a 20% discount on spectrum in the 900 MHz range, a move endorsed by the ECB, EU, and IMF. BMI believes the launch of LTE-based services, which utilise network capacity more efficiently, will result in higher data transfer rates and lower network congestion and could ultimately result in mobile broadband becoming a viable substitute for wireline.
Portugal continued to rank at the bottom of BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the telecommunications markets of Western Europe in 16th position. During this quarter Portugal received lower scores in the Industry Rewards, Country Rewards and Country Risk categories. The lower Country Rewards and Country Risk scores reflect the challenges which Portugal's economy faces, while the low Industry Rewards score reflects low ARPUs and the negative mobile subscriber growth in H111.
Business Monitor International's Portugal Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Portugal's telecommunications industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Portugal Mobile Market SWOT Analysis
Portugal Wireline Market SWOT Analysis
Portugal Political SWOT
Portugal Economic SWOT
Business Environment Analysis
Little Change as Economic Woes Weigh Heavily
Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411
Portugal
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts (EUR)
Fixed Line
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Portugal Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Market Growth
Market Share
Table: Portuguese Mobile Market, Q211
Table: Portuguese Mobile Market Net Additions, Q310-Q211
Subscriber Mix
ARPU And MOU
Table: Portuguese Blended ARPU, Q408-Q111 (EUR/User/Month)
3G
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Portugal Mobile Market Overview
Table: TMN
Table: Vodafone Portugal
Table: Optimus
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On
Country Outlook
Mobile Broadband
Value Added Services
Table: Mobile Content Usage, Q109 – Q111
Table: VAS Timeline
Fixed Line
Table: Portugal: Growth Of Fixed-Line Accesses (‘000), Q210 – Q111
Table: Portugal – Operator Market Shares Of Accesses Installed At Customer Request (%)
Table: Portugal – Growth Of Fixed-Line Customers By Type , Q210 – Q111
Table: Portugal: Operator Market Shares Of Voice Traffic (calls) (%)
Pay-TV
Table: Portugal Pay-TV Market by Technology ('000)
Leading Pay-TV Operators
Internet
Table: Portugal Broadband Market by Technology ('000)
Table: Portugal: Operator Market Shares of Fixed Broadband Customers (%)
Next Generation Networks
WiMAX
Table: Portugal telecom
Table: Grupo Zon
Table: Sonaecom
Regulatory Environment
Overview
Portugal: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation
Market Analyses
Interconnection And Access
Universal Service
Recent Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players – Portugal Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators – Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent CEE-ks Growth In The East
Operator Profiles
Portugal Telecom
TMN
Vodafone Portugal
Optimus Telecomunicações
Sonaecom
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Internet
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Portugal Telecom
- TMN
- Vodafone Portugal
- Optimus Telecomunicações
- Sonaecom
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