Thailand Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 42
Growth Remains Resilient Growth in the Thai economy remains reasonably resilient despite a reduction in external demand and renewed concerns over a 'double-dip' recession in the US and eurozone. For the moment, BMI is broadly maintaining its forecasts for GDP and freight transport activity. As far as the local economy is concerned, the positives include a good investment performance and increased public spending from the newlyelected government. As a result of our analysis, BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.6% (following the 7.8% expansion experienced in 2010).
Industry-specific factors are also in play. Although dry bulk rates remain weak, some local companies, such as PSL, are benefiting from fleet modernisation and the relative strength of intra-Asian trade routes. In our view, port and shipping activity looks like expanding faster than GDP this year.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 Port of Bangkok tonnage throughput growth is forecast at 5.4%, and estimated to average 4.4% a year to 2015.
- 2011 Port of Laem Chabang tonnage throughput growth forecast 8.1%, and to average 6.6% a year to 2015.
- 2011 air freight tonnes growth forecast 5.17% and to average 4.6% a year to 2015.
- 2011 rail freight tonnage throughput growth forecast 7.7%, and to average 6.6% a year to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
Freight Sector Could Benefit From New Move On Infrastructure Investment
The new administration appears ready to build on its predecessor's efforts to encourage investment. Finance minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala says he is working on tax incentives for infrastructure funds, something which could benefit the freight sector. There are also moves to study setting up a sovereign wealth fund. The World Bank and ADB are involved in plans for the infrastructure funds.
Yingluck MovesOn Domestic High Speed Rail The newly elected government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has signalled its enthusiasm for high-speed rail, announcing plans to build four new lines radiating from Bangkok and covering 1,280km. They are part of a four-year, US$26.7bn rail development programme. At the same time however, the administration is postponing plans to build a high-speed link to Laos and China.
TTA Boosts Profits And Calms Frisky Shareholders
Thoresen Thai Agencies (TTA) registered a net profit of THB324.45mn (US$10.86mn) during Q311, compared with THB138.11mn (US$4.62mn) in the year-ago period. It said improved performance came from better time charter rates on the dry bulk shipping fleet. Earlier, the company managed to head off a revolt by minority shareholders who wanted it to decrease its exposure to the volatile dry bulk sector and diversify into other areas, including liquid bulk and property development.
Key Risks To Outlook
Watch The Thaksin Factor
After the Puea Thai Party (PTP) election victory in July, Thailand has a new government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is the sister of the controversial exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Although the political transition has been ordered and relatively market-friendly, the issue of Thaksin's return from exile remains an important downside political risk factor for our forecasts. We expect the PTP to press for constitutional reform and an amnesty that would allow Thaksin back into the country.
The unknown at this stage is the likely reaction of the opposition Peoples' Alliance for Democracy (PAD). A return to mass protests and stoppages would, as in the recent past, have very negative effects on the transport system in general. It would also scare off investors and impact the airports and road and rail traffic, particularly in Bangkok, traditionally a focus-point for protests.
Business Monitor International's Thailand Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's freight transportation industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Multimodal/Logistics
Rail
Air
Maritime
Market Overview
Air
Rail
Road
Maritime
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2007-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2007-2015 ('000 tonnes)
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2015
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Thailand's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009(US$mn)
Table: Thailand's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009(US$Mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Thai Cargo
Precious Shipping PCL (PSL)
Regional Container Lines (RCL)
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources
- Thai Cargo
- Precious Shipping PCL (PSL)
- Regional Container Lines (RCL)
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