Turkey Freight Transport Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 45
BMI View The Turkish freight transport sector continues to benefit from the economy's strong growth this year, as well as from its developing role as a major transport hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, because of increasing global economic headwinds, Turkish GDP growth and freight demand is set to moderate as we move into 2012. As a result of our analysis, BMI now forecasts 2012 GDP growth of 4.5% (following the 8.9% expansion experienced in 2010).
In terms of industry specifics, we have raised some of our freight projections for 2011, to take account of the stronger demand in the first half of this year. Notably we have boosted predicted gross tonnage at the Port of Ambarli now set to expand by 37.1% (up from 21.3% in 2010). We have also boosted air freight growth to 9.9%. The outlook for road haulage remains good, while the expected performance of rail freight remains on the sluggish side.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 9.9% to 2.05mn tonnes.
- 2011 rail freight volume is forecast to grow by 2.8% to reach 24.47mn tonnes
- 2011 port of Ambarli tonnage is forecast to grow by 37.1% to 4.728mn tonnes
- 2011 road freight carried is forecast to grow by 4.1% to 191.74bn tonnes-km
- 2011 total real trade growth is forecast at 8.3%.
Key Industry Trends
Roads And Bridges Up For Privatisation
OIB, the privatisation authority, is offering 25-year concessions to operate the two BospHorus bridges and eight toll roads across the country, equivalent to a total of 1,975km in distance, with an estimated value in the range of US$5bn. Final bids from the likes of major global infrastructure players like Australian firm Macquarie Infrastructure, Spanish Abertis, Portuguese Brisa, Italian Atlanita and Japanese firm Itochu are expected.
Maersk Sees Black Sea Banana Opportunity
Container shipping giant Maersk Line is launching a new Latin America-Black Sea service, with stops at Izmit and Ambarli in Turkey. Part of the economic rationale for the new service lies in strong demand for Latin American and Caribbean bananas from Russia and other Black Sea states. More generally, given overcapacity and low freight rates on the main world trade routes, this service shows how container liners Hamburg Süd Rationalises Eastern Mediterranean Service Tough market conditions appear to behind a decision by German shipper Hamburg Süd to reduce its services to the Eastern Mediterranean. The company said it was withdrawing the Northern Route Service (NEMN) between North Europe and Turkey and adjusting the Southern Route Levante Service (NESM) to include key ports from the Northern Route Service.
Key Risks To Outlook
The key risks to our Turkish freight forecast are evenly balanced at the moment. In BMI's opinion, significant upside risks remain present, particularly on the short term, given the strength of GDP growth. Indeed, the government's economists are concerned over potential overheating. Looking further ahead, it is also possible that Turkey's role as a transport hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than we expect.
On the downside, however, there are also a number of factors to consider. These include the renewed possibility of a 'double dip' recession in the US and eurozone, triggered in the latter case by the ongoing debt crisis in neighbouring Greece. While Turkey is diversifying its diplomatic and trade relationships - a sound strategy to follow - there are also downside risks to consider there too. One of these is the sharp deterioration in relations with Israel, which has up to now been a significant trading partner.
Business Monitor International's Turkey Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's freight transportation industry.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Turkey Freight Transport SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Road
Rail
Air
Maritime
Market Overview
Multimodal
Infrastructure
Global Products Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl)
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2015
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2015 ('000 tonnes)
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2015
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$MN)
Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$MN)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Turkish Cargo
Turkon Line
Turkish State Railways (TCDD) Freight
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources
- Turkish Cargo
- Turkon Line
- Turkish State Railways (TCDD) Freight
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