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Viewing report
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Turkey Shipping Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 85
BMI View The Turkish ports and shipping sector continues to benefit from the economy's strong growth in 2011, as well as from the country's developing role as a major transport hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. BMI note however that because of increasing global economic headwinds, Turkish GDP growth and freight demand is set to moderate as BMI move into 2012. As a result of their analysis, BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 7.0% (following the 8.9% expansion experienced in 2010). Their outlook for 2012 is for growth to slow to 4.5%. In the five years to 2015 BMI expect growth to average 5.5% per annum, indicating that Turkey will continue to be ahead of many of its peers.
In terms of industry specifics, BMI have raised some of their port throughput projections for 2011, to take account of the economic boom experienced in the first half of the year. BMI now forecast gross tonnage at the Port of Ambarli to surge by 37.1% (up from the 21.3% BMI forecast in Q311). Growth is set to remain strong over the medium term although it will moderate because of tougher market conditions.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 Port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargoes tonnage throughput forecast to grow 37.1%; over the mid-term BMI project an annual 17.7% increase.
- 2011 Port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow by 6.6%; over the mid-term BMI project average annual growth of 8.2%.
- 2011 total trade growth forecast at 8.3% (up from 7.9% in their last quarterly report). Key Industry Trends
Azerbaijani Oil And Gas Transit Could Increase Although onward shipments of Azerbaijani oil to Europe through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan were down in July, BMI expect them to hold steady for 2011 as a whole, and talks on further oil and gas transport collaboration may point to future growth in this transit business.
Maersk Sees Black Sea Banana Opportunity Container shipping giant Maersk Line is launching a new Latin America - Black Sea service, with stops at Izmit and Ambarli in Turkey. Part of the economic rationale for the new service lies in strong demand for Latin American and Caribbean bananas from Russia and other Black Sea states. More generally, given overcapacity and low freight rates on the main world trade routes, this service shows how container liners are searching for profitability in niche shipping routes.
Hamburg Süd Rationalises Eastern Mediterranean Service Tough market conditions appear to behind a decision by German shipper Hamburg Süd to reduce its services to the Eastern Mediterranean. The company said it is withdrawing the Northern Route Service (NEMN) between Northern Europe and Turkey and adjusting the Southern Route Levante Service (NESM) to include key ports from the Northern Route Service.
Key Risks To Outlook
The key risks to BMIs Turkish ports and shipping forecast are evenly balanced at the moment. In BMI's opinion, significant upside risks remain present - particularly in the short term - given the strength of GDP growth. Indeed, the government's economists are concerned over potential overheating. Looking further ahead, it is also possible that Turkey's role as a shipping hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than BMI expect.
On the downside, however, there are also a number of factors to consider. These include the renewed possibility of a 'double dip' recession in the US and eurozone, triggered in the latter case by the ongoing debt crisis in neighbouring Greece. While Turkey is diversifying its diplomatic and trade relationships - a sound strategy to follow - there are also downside risks to consider. One of these is the sharp deterioration in relations with Israel, which has up to now been a significant trading partner.
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