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Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 95
Business Monitor International's Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: The listing of 48 additional medicines and the increased in prices of 23 drugs in the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) will benefit even more patients and ensure a constant sales for drugmakers as the PBS accounts for 75% of medicine spending. Over the long term, BMI does not expect the listing of new drugs to be sustainable given the country's precarious economic situation.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.41bn (US$11.40bn) in 2010 to AUD12.67bn (US$13.27bn) in 2011; 2.1% in local currency terms and 16.3% in US dollar terms. BMI's forecast remains broadly unchanged.
Healthcare: AUD123.15bn (US$113.10bn) in 2010 to AUD128.58bn (US$134.63bn) in 2011; +4.4% in local currency terms and 19.1% in US dollar terms. BMI's forecast remains broadly unchanged.
Medical devices: AUD5.33bn (US$4.89bn) in 2010 to AUD5.38bn (US$5.63bn) in 2011; +0.9% in local currency terms and 15.1% in US dollar terms. BMI's forecast remains broadly unchanged.
Business Environment Rating:
In BMI’s Q112 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Australia maintains its position, third in the regional matrix out of the 18 countries on the proprietary index with a score of 66.2 (65.2 in Q411), significantly higher than the region’s average of 53.7. Its Country Rewards score increased from 80 in Q411 to 87 in Q112. The country score highest in Country Rewards (87) and Risks (77) primarily due to its extensive urbanisation, increasingly ageing population, proper legal framework and the lack of widespread corruption.
Key Trends & Developments:
- In October 2011, Australia's Ministry of Health and Ageing has provided subsidised access to 48 medicines that will benefit more than 160,000 patients annually, effective from December 2011. This announcement came after an August 2011 report released by Australia's Senate Finance and Administration References Committee recommended the government reinstate the ‘AUD$10mn (US$10.6mn) rule’ so medicines with less financial impact can listed on the PBS without the approval of the Cabinet.
- In the same month, the Pharmacy Guild of Australia and Blackmores deal was withdrawn days after the announcement citing concerns from the public and misreporting in the media. Both parties originally plan for joint development of the Blackmores Companions Range. These natural health products are formulated as companion products to prescription medicines and can offset the nutritional side-effects of taking prescription medicines.
BMI Economic View:
China's and Australia's latest manufacturing indices paint a bearish picture for growth in the two countries. While China's official purchasing managers' index beat consensus and stayed above 50, coming in at 51.2, it was the lowest monthly gain for a September on record. The Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index, meanwhile, which came in at 42.3, all but confirmed that Australia's domestic demand is heading for recession. Readings are expected to continue to deteriorate in both countries in line with China's ongoing cash crunch and Australia's housing-led slump.
BMI Political View:
Despite the ruling Australian Labor Party's (ALP's) victory in securing the passage of the controversial carbon tax bill amid news that the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% (from 5.3%) in September, BMI believes the party's political position remains vulnerable and highly dependent on the support of a small number of independent lawmakers. With the beleaguered incumbent's approval rating remaining well below the opposition Liberal-National coalition, BMI believes a change in power will be inevitable come the next general election.
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