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Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 98
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's telecommunications industry.
The Q112 update to the Bulgaria telecommunications report contains BMI's extended and revised forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, as well as for mobile ARPUs through to 2016. In addition, the Bulgaria report contains updated operational and financial data for the country's major network operators, as well as an overview of mobile content and value-added services, and an update to the regulatory environment.
Based on Q211 figures published by Bulgaria's two largest mobile operators – Telekom Austria-backed Mobiltel and Globul, which is owned by OTE of Greece – BMI estimates that the mobile subscriber base grew by 1.1% during Q111, up from the 0.45% growth recorded the previous quarter, to reach 10.835mn subscribers. This represented the sector's strongest quarter of growth since Q210.
However, the third operator and the incumbent Vivacom does not publish regular updates for its operational indicators, and figures for the operator this quarter are estimates based on historical growth rates and general market trends. Looking ahead, BMI considers the growth prospects to be limited with penetration rates above 140%.
Rapid subscriber growth is not expected to return to the Bulgarian market considering the high mobile penetration rate and the introduction of mandatory SIM registration. Rather, Operators are expected to focus on attracting higher value subscribers and expanding their postpaid subscriber bases to ensure ARPU stability. By 2016, BMI forecasts Bulgaria's mobile penetration rate to reach 154.2%. BMI also expects 3G connections, which accounted for just 9.4% of total mobile subscriptions in 2010, to account for around 22.4% of the mobile market by 2016.
As the incumbent Vivacom has not released financial or operational data for the fixed-line or fixed broadband markets in 2011, BMI is basing its analysis on figures supplied by the ITU and the EC. According to broadband market data for the Bulgarian market published by the EC, there were about 1.126mn fixed broadband subscribers and just under 600,000 wireless broadband subscribers using a dedicated data card or USB modem at the end of 2010.
For the mobile broadband market, BMI is able to draw on data released by Mobiltel to give an indication of trends in the market. Mobiltel reported 120.7% y-o-y growth to take total subscriptions to 161,000 in Q211. BMI believes this is representative of growth across the market. This growth in mobile broadband means BMI has revised up its broadband forecast for this quarter and now expect broadband penetration (fixed and wireless access) to exceed 42% by 2016.
The latest market data on Bulgaria's fixed-line sector relate to 2010 communications market published by the ITU. According to the ITU, there were 2.2mn fixed lines in Bulgaria at the end of 2010. The ITU also revised historical figures, changing the 2009 figures from 21.654mn to 2.205mn subscribers. BMI notes that bundled offerings, especially from cable operators, are a main driver of fixed-line subscriptions in Bulgaria.
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