|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Mexico Petrochemicals Report 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 42
Business Monitor International's Mexico Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's petrochemicals industry.
The Mexican petrochemicals industry is preparing for a significant expansion of capacities, but will remain a net importer over the long-term, according to BMI’s latest Mexico Petrochemicals Report. On the domestic market, sales of LLDPE are set to equal LDPE in 2012. LLDPE is becoming more popular than LDPE due to its higher tensile strength and puncture resistance, allowing for thinner films with similar durability. This ultimately reduces costs, although it is harder to process and does not have the clarity that some consumers desire. Packaging is the main market for LLDPE, particularly in food packaging, and has over-taken LDPE in terms of market size in the US market. LLDPE is set to grow at a strong rate over coming years. With LLDPE capacity not set to rise in line with increased demand, imports are set to rise. BMI forecasts that Mexico’s deficit in polyolefins will reach 2.2mn tonnes in 2012, with the HDPE deficit reaching 800,000 tonnes, LD/LLDPE deficit at about 600,000 tonnes and the PP deficit reaching 800,000 tonnes.
Reducing dependence on imports is only likely once the Ethylene XXI project, based on 1.05mn tpa ethylene capacity, 750,000tpa HDPE and 300,000tpa LDPE capacities, goes into commercial operation in 2015. In April 2011, Braskem-Idesa, a joint venture between Brazil’s Braskem and Mexico’s Idesa, awarded a contract to Technip to build its world scale ethylene plant at Ethylene XXI. Construction began in October 2011 and is scheduled for completion by end-2014. Forming the core of a petrochemicals complex at Coatzacoalcos, the US$1bn plant will use ethane feedstock. However, Mexico will remain a net importer of polymers over the long-term. It is unlikely that upstream resources will justify another world-scale cracker, while the country’s burgeoning manufacturing sector will continue to require higher levels of basic plastics.
The main risk going forward will be policy continuity following the end of the Calderón presidency, which ends in 2012. The constant struggle to introduce far-reaching social and economic reforms will be the defining characteristic of Mexican politics beyond the presidential elections. Bureaucratic inertia and powerful vested interests will translate into a lack of sustainable economic development, maintaining the country's position as an emerging market underperformer.
Over the medium term, growth in output and investment in capacity is likely to be further constrained by upstream capacity constraints and tightening markets. BMI is encouraged by the government’s desire to free up Pemex to invest in downstream facilities and encourage private sector participation, but has doubts on its ability to achieve its goals. Further consolidation and integration with the petrochemical industry would also establish the basis for further expansion, although BMI does not expect any new projects to come onstream over the next five years.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
