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Liquid Bulk Consolidation Likely as Spot Rates Sink
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 30
BMI has a very bearish outlook for the global crude oil shipping sector in 2012, particularly toward companies with significant numbers of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) in their fleets, and especially those operating on the spot market. The global crude oil tanker sector is in crisis. Like the container and dry bulk shipping sectors, tanker operators are struggling against the effects of overcapacity. Vessels ordered during the pre-downturn boom years have continued to come online through 2011 despite the continued decline in rates, worsening the problem still further, and will continue to do so through the coming years.
In the “Liquid Bulk Overview Q1 2012” BMI examines the global supply and demand outlook for crude oil and crude oil shipping, and outlines what is expected to happen in 2012 and beyond. The first chapter is entitled “Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant”, and in it BMI explains why they are bearish towards the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index and other indices in 2012, and examines their performance in 2011.
In “Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes”, BMI examines how the world’s two largest tanker operators, Frontline and Teekay have had different levels of success in 2011 as a result of their different modi operandi, and explains how this is believed will continue in 2012 as they maintain their positions. While Frontline operates largely in the spot market, Teekay ensures a certain level of time chartered tonnage in its fleet.
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