Japan Tourism Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 58
Business Monitor International's Japan Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's tourism industry.
Japan’s arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to less than 6.66mn after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals are estimated to have rebounded in 2010 to 8.45mn.
As a result of the devastating earthquake that hit Tohoku on March 11 2011, and the tsunami and nuclear crisis that followed, BMI cut our outlook for Japan’s tourism industry for 2011 and 2012. Previously, BMI forecast 8.99mn and 9.64mn arrivals in 2011 and 2012 respectively. BMI now forecast arrivals to fall in 2011 to 7.99mn, before rising to 8.57mn in 2012 and eventually 10.41mn by 2015. Although arrivals to Japan fell by 57% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2011, June arrivals were down by just 30% y-o-y, according to the Japanese Tourism Agency (JTA), demonstrating that the industry was rebounding quickly.
The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased between 2001 and 2007. Tourist arrivals by air were by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007 compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009 leisure arrivals totalled 4.40mn while business arrivals were 1.41mn, both falling from 2008 but picking up in 2010 to 6.06mn and 1.56mn respectively. BMI forecasts that the number of leisure arrivals will dip in 2011, due to the recent events in Japan, and increase slowly thereafter to 7.88mn in 2015, when business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.72mn.
Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has eased visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Until 2009 visas were only granted to individual Chinese travellers with an annual income of at least CNY250,000 (US$36,600). Given that this is a large sum for most Chinese workers, visitors tended to travel as part of a tour group. However, Japan has lowered the threshold of annual income to CNY60,000 (US$8,780). To deal with the rise in visa applications, all seven Japanese diplomatic offices in China will accept applications, instead of just three previously, and the number of Chinese tour agencies eligible to apply for visas for their customers has increased from 48 to 290.
As well as appointing Hiroshi Mizohata as the new tourism commissioner in April 2010, the JTA took a new slogan and logo. The ‘Japan: Endless Discovery’ slogan is part of the country’s revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The logo depicts white Japanese cherry blossom against a red sun background.
Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to decline. The Japanese government’s individual expenditure has risen from US$15.64bn in 2001, and is forecast to peak at US$27.89bn in 2012. BMI forecast individual government tourism expenditure to decline from this point to US$25.64bn by 2015. The government’s collective tourism expenditure is also expected to fall by 2015. In 2001, collective expenditure came in at US$12.30bn and it is forecast to hit US$19.89bn in 2011 and peak at US$21.79bn in 2012. From 2012, BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, going under US$20bn by 2015.
There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan’s air industry is dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country’s expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, 53 miles (85km) north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for budget airlines to enter the market. However, as of October 2010 Ibaraki has only attracted one daily flight to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines. ANA has been considering launching a low-cost carrier operating international and domestic routes to take advantage of the new runway at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, and will launch a low-cost airline based at Kansai International Airport, Osaka, in 2011. In February 2011, Peach Aviation Limited was established as the first low-cost carrier in Japan. Peach will be based out of Kansai and start flights to Sapporo/Shin Chitose and Fukuoka no later than March 2012, and Seoul/Incheon in May the same year. The carrier is 33.4% owned by All Nippon Airways, while First Eastern Aviation Holdings Limited and Innovation Network Corporation of Japan each hold a 33.3% stake.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Japan Tourism SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2008-2015 (‘000)
Expenditure Data
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2008-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 20072015
Market Overview – Travel
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Business Environment Outlook
Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Japan’s Security Ratings
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Asia City Terrorism Index
North East Asia Security Overview
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Global Assumptions
Europe On The Edge
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (%chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (%chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
All Nippon Airways
Japan Airlines
JAL Hotels
Kamori Kanko
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- All Nippon Airways
- Japan Airlines
- JAL Hotels
- Kamori Kanko,
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