Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, October 2011, Pages: 71
After two disastrous years in terms of gas exports, the latest Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will bounce back in 2011 with exports recovering slightly to approach the levels seen prior to the fateful CAC-4 pipeline explosion in April 2009. The disproportionately significant consequences of this event continue to reverberate around the Turkmen gas industry, with the country exporting less gas over the course of 2009 and 2010 than it did in the whole of 2008. New pipeline projects to China have so far failed to deliver the volumes Turkmenistan had used to export to Russia. We expect gas exports to 57.9bcm by 2015, on the back of 90.0bcm of production and demand of 32.1bcm.
Oil production has never been Turkmenistan’s strong suit but we nevertheless see scope for strong growth from a low base. Turkmen oil production rose to 200,000b/d in 2010 and we expect it to rise further to 305,000b/d by 2015. Net exports will continue to grow due to the lower base for growth in oil consumption, which will rise from 119,000b/d in 2010 to 186,000b/d in 2015. This should mean Turkmenistan is exporting 153,000b/d by 2015, up from 81,000b.d in 2010.
In the long term Turkmenistan’s gas industry holds immense unlocked potential and could rise by 56% to as much as 140bcm by 2020, making it one of the world’s top gas producers. Although grossly inefficient use of gas should ensure the country also becomes a major consumer by 2020, using 46bcm. This should allow Turkmenistan to export as much as 94bcm of gas, provided that sufficient demand exists and suitable export infrastructure is put in place to utilise the country’s potential.
Turkmenistan’s oil production growth should continue well into the second half of the decade by which time the country should be producing 353,000b/d. By 2020, demand of 193,000b/d should mean the country will be able to export 160,000b/d, mainly to its Central Asian neighbours.
Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, the Caspian states have an important role to play, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan an increasingly significant factor. The growth rate in Russian oil supply has slowed appreciably since the early-2000s but the acceleration of Caspian expansion means that the region will make a growing contribution to world oil production.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price Turkmenistan shares first place with Poland in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies seventh place in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table. Turkmenistan is second in BMI’s downstream ratings, with a few particularly high. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, as does refining capacity expansion.
SWOT Analysis
Turkmenistan Political SWOT
Turkmenistan Economic SWOT
Turkmenistan Business Environment SWOT
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Risk Summary
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Turkmenistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Turkmenistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkmenistan - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Eni
Dragon Oil
Petronas – Summary
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Itera – Summary
RWE – Summary
Others – Summary
Service Companies
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Turkmenistan Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Eni
- Dragon Oil
- Petronas
- China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
- Gazprom
- Itera
- RWE
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