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Canada Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 63
Canada Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's power industry.
Canada power industry forecasts have been revised this quarter, following the release of new historical data by two of our main reference sources. In spite of these changes, we confirm our view that Canada's mature electricity market will see a relatively moderate rise in generation and consumption in the coming years. We also maintain our view that its capacity expansion programmes will focus primarily on renewable, and, possibly, on CCS technology. However, we signal some downward risks, introduced by uncertainty regarding subsidies.
Canada currently enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. However, the Canadian Electricity Association and the IEA have estimated that by 2030 utility companies will need CAD134bn in investment for generation and CAD103.6bn for transmission and distribution to ensure long-term stability in supply. Provincial energy strategies strongly reflect a growing desire to increase both the use of green resources and the capacity of transmission networks. Furthermore, the country will need to substitute its ageing thermal capacity, especially if it is to meet its ambitious carbon emission reduction targets.
In light of these elements, key themes for Canada's power sector this quarter include:
- South Korea's Samsung and Pattern Energy Group have bought a wind power project in Ontario from Spain's Acciona, with a view to boosting the farm's planned capacity to 180MW. The acquisition is the latest move in a venture that has seen Samsung and Pattern acquire land in the province in an effort to expand their wind energy portfolio. We note, however, that the project faces serious downside risks, as wind development and feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) are at the centre of an ongoing provincial election campaign.
- According to industry sources (quoted by Reuters), Canada needs to hike its electricity prices, if the country wants to meet its future demand. Canada's aging power infrastructure necessitates substantial investment and, as coal and nuclear generation find less favour, new investments in renewables power plants will be required. Yet, we note that a significant portion of the political leadership appear reluctant to embrace these facts.
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