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Germany Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 60
Germany Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's power industry.
Germany stands at the crossroads of a new energy future. No path is without issues, however, as finding a suitable and rapid replacement for nuclear power will not prove easy. An early commitment to clean coal technology might be the most rational approach, given that it could ease the burden of rising gas imports. Germany is already a leader in renewables, but scaling up the various technologies to replace nuclear power is a real challenge.
Between 2011 and 2015, Germany’s overall power generation is expected to decrease by an annual average of 0.24%, ending the period at almost 571TWh. Key trends within the development of German power generation are a forecast average annual decline of 15% in nuclear energy, offset partly by an 8.5% rise in the use of gas-fired power and of renewables. Coal-fired generation should fall steadily during the forecast period.
Germany's decision to permanently suspend operations at the seven nuclear reactors it mothballed in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident, and to reinstate a policy to phase-out nuclear power by 2022, will undoubtedly have a major impact on the country's electricity mix and power sector. With the fate of nuclear power sealed, we believe that gas-fuelled power generation and renewables will see the strongest and most consistent growth.
Following an estimated 3.5% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.9% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to fall from the current level of 81.5mn to 80.6mn during the same period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 561TWh to 589TWh by 2015, rising further to 623TWh by 2020. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 1.42%, but will slow later in the decade to an average of 1.14% in 2016- 2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, the growth of which lags underlying demand, Germany’s historic power supply surplus is set to become a significant shortfall thanks to the nuclear closure programme and the likely steady build-up of renewables and thermal supply. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 5.1% will help support the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2015 is put at 46TWh, which should fall by a quarter by 2020 if non-nuclear capacity expansion accelerates as planned.
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