|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Italy Power Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 54
Italy Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's power industry.
As the public say no to nuclear, Italy resigns itself to a future of greater import dependency, a continued high-level use of imported natural gas for generation and a desperate need to boost solar and wind power. Nuclear was always a controversial and generally unpopular option but, as in the UK, the government saw it as the easiest route to a low-carbon generating portfolio. Italy now faces a major challenge in securing adequate supply and avoiding a massive power import requirement.
Italy banned nuclear power generation in a 1987 referendum. Plans were then reintroduced for the establishment of nuclear generating capacity that could help the country meet its emissions targets. Then, in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima accident, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was forced to accept the rejection of his nuclear power plans in a popular referendum.
During the period 2011-2015, Italy’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.30%, reaching 290TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 2.58% gain in gas-fired and a 6.32% rise in renewables-based electricity supply. Coal-fired generation is expected to fall by 2.10% per annum, with the use of oil-fuelled generation dropping by an average 5.44%.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 1.1%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 1.4% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to remain around the 61mn level throughout the forecast period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 299TWh to 329TWh by 2015, rising further to 360TWh by 2020. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.24%, but slowing somewhat later in the decade to an average 1.86% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which lags that of the underlying demand trend, Italy’s power supply shortfall is likely to increase steadily. A broadly stable percentage of transmission and distribution losses at around 7% will do little to help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2015 is put at 59TWh, which could climb further to 74TWh by 2020 if investment isn’t increased dramatically.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
