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Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 72
Saudi Arabia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's retail industry.
The Q411 BMI Saudi Arabia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an expected SAR256.13bn (US$68.39bn) in 2011 to SAR394.13bn (US$105.24bn) by 2015. Principal factors behind the forecast growth in Saudi Arabia’s retail sales are: strong underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing acceptance of the concept of modern retailing, a youthful population and an enlarged consumer base created by the improved position of women in society. Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP in 2011 is predicted to be US$464.3bn, with growth of 6.3% in real terms expected for the year. Average annual real GDP growth of 4.0% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing, GDP per capita is predicted to rise to US$21,260 by the end of the forecast period.
The retail sector benefits from the large number of Muslim tourists visiting the country to take part in the hajj and umrah pilgrimages every year. Sales of gifts and souvenirs in 2008 were estimated to have risen by at least SAR4bn (US$1.1bn) due to shopping by hajj pilgrims, according to a Gulf News report.
Increasing urbanisation is also driving retail sales. In 2005, nearly 89% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, rising to an estimated 90% by 2010. The UN also described more than 57% of the population as economically active in 2005, with this proportion forecast to exceed 59% in 2010 and 66% by 2015. About 38% of the population was in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales in 2005, and the UN forecasts that this will rise to about 45% by 2015.
Gap is among the latest international retailers to enter the market. It plans to open 44 Gap stores (and variations) and 10 Banana Republic stores in Saudi Arabia by 2012.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted by BMI to show strong growth over the forecast period include overthe- counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals with sales expected to increase by nearly 45%, from an expected US$0.39bn in 2011 to US$0.57bn by 2015.
With the Saudi consumer electronics market one of the largest in the Gulf, accounting for about 40% of regional spending, sales in this sector are forecast to increase from an estimated US$4.03bn in 2011 to US$5.01bn by 2015, a rise of more than 24%. Consumer electronics spending will be driven by youthful demographics, a regional economic boom and a buoyant real estate sector.
High business confidence and increased disposable incomes also provide a favourable background for the automotives sector. Vehicle sales are forecast to rise nearly 39% by the end of the period, from a forecast 688,883 units in 2011 to 956,382 units by 2015.
Retail sales for our grouping of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2011 are predicted to amount to US$255.86bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is forecast at US$722.41bn. In 2011, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 56.2% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.8%; by 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.3%. For Saudi Arabia, its estimated 2011 market share of 26.7% is expected to increase to 28.0% by 2015.
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