Chile Defence and Security Report 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2011, Pages: 110
Business Monitor International's Chile Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's defence and security industry.
Chile’s transition to a centre-right government led by Sebastián Piñera during the 2009-2010 elections indicated the continuing growth of a short tradition of stable democracy in the country. The development corroborated the views of those who see Chile as a model of stability for Latin America. However, the arrival of a centre-right government also cemented the continuation of fiscal austerity, which BMI sees as a risk to the country’s stability.
Indeed, as BMI anticipated, Chile’s internal security environment became more uncertain during and around the 2011 anniversary of the coup d’état forced by the military against President Salvador Allende on September 11 1973. Although largely peaceful, violence broke out at the marches attended by hundreds of thousands of Chileans, many of whom continued demands for an overhaul of the country’s education system. Even if the authorities’ significantly lower number of some tens of thousands of protestors is to be believed, the demonstrations are significant in terms of Chile’s internal security and represent the country’s largest anti-government movement since the termination of General Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in 1990.
The large-scale protests, in which hundreds have been arrested and injured, are a reminder that Chile’s pre-eminent status for stability and security in Latin America, although not unwarranted, can often be overplayed. The relatively high proportion of household income that goes towards education – on all levels – in Chile, compared to counterparts in quasi-developed economies, will therefore continue to fuel internal security instability. With three years remaining of Piñera’s government as of 2011, the scope for further protest and unrest – potentially in a violent form – is considerable.
Chile continued military acquisitions in 2011, which began with defence minister Jaime Ravinet’s resignation after a dispute on the appropriate level of transparency the military should provide in its finances and procurement. Although then deputy finance minister Rodrigo Alvarez was rumoured to take the post, Piñera instead installed him as energy minister and picked Andres Allamand as Ravinet’s replacement.
It was confirmed in early October 2011 that Chile was to acquire unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Israel’s Elbit Systems for border control, ostensibly in the context of drug control. Chile’s Air Force also took delivery of the final five F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands in late August 2011, finally winding down a US$270mn deal made in 2009. The Chilean Army moved ahead with a modernisation and upgrade contract for 12 M109A5 Self-Propelled Howitzer, manufactured by BAE Systems’ US sites and procured as a US$15.8mn US foreign military sales contact in October 2011.
BMI expects defence expenditure to grow by 8.06% to CLP3.88trn (US$8.35bn) in 2011, as growth edges down from a much sharper 19.23% jump in the previous year. Defence expenditure will ease further to 6.99% in 2012 and hover within the 5% mark from 2013each year through to 2021, BMI’s calculations show. Throughout the period, Chile’s defence spending will make up 3% of its GDP.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Chile Security SWOT
Chile Defence Industry SWOT
Chile Political SWOT
Chile Ecomonic SWOT
Chile Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Latin America Security Overview
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
The Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Chile’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Table: Chile Political Overview
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Chile-US Relations
Chile-Peru Relations
Chile-Bolivia Relations
Antarctica
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Table Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Military Personnel, 2001-2009 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2008-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Spending
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Defence Exports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Defence Imports, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Trade Balance, 2008-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Chile – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Chile Defence Sector
Company Profiles
Astilleros y Maestranzas de la Armada
Empresa Nacional de Aeronáutica (Enaer)
Fábrica y Maestranzas del Ejercito (Famae)
Country Snapshot: Chile Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Astilleros y Maestranzas de la Armada
- Empresa Nacional de Aeronáutica (Enaer)
- Fábrica y Maestranzas del Ejercito (Famae)
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