Sudan Defence and Security Report Q4 2011

  • ID: 1958567
  • October 2011
  • Region: Sudan
  • 67 Pages
  • Business Monitor International
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In line with its previous forecasts, BMI expects to report an increase in Sudan’s defence expenditure of around 13.3% in 2011, largely in line with economic growth. Rising tensions over oil, land borders and power in Darfur and the newly created Republic of South Sudan are likely to encourage spending to increase at a rate of around 12.5% each year between 2012 and 2015. As such, defence expenditure will continue to increase as a percentage of government spending to 34.8% by the end of BMI's forecast scenario in 2019, from 22% in 2010.

There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since BMI's last update. In September 2011, Sudanese First Vice President Taha urged people to put the security of the two countries ahead of their apprehensions over the CPA. Meanwhile, President al-Bashir reiterated that border arrangements must be respected if conflict in the region is to pass. In September 2011, Juda and Khartoum agreed to withdraw their respective troops from the common South Kordofan, Blue Nile border, creating a demilitarised area, with 10 crossing points for ease of transport and communication.

However, a number of factors READ MORE >

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Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea, Greece
Table: Election Timetable
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Overview
Conflict in Darfur
Justice And Equality Movement
North-South Civil War
Conflict In The East
Latest Developments
External Security Situation
Sudan And Uganda
Relationship With Washington
Latest Developments
Sudan And Israel
Armed Forces
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces, 2001-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Arms Trade
Table: Sudan’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2007-2015
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology

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