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Sudan Defence and Security Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Oct 2011, Pages: 67
In line with its previous forecasts, BMI expects to report an increase in Sudan’s defence expenditure of around 13.3% in 2011, largely in line with economic growth. Rising tensions over oil, land borders and power in Darfur and the newly created Republic of South Sudan are likely to encourage spending to increase at a rate of around 12.5% each year between 2012 and 2015. As such, defence expenditure will continue to increase as a percentage of government spending to 34.8% by the end of BMI's forecast scenario in 2019, from 22% in 2010.
There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since BMI's last update. In September 2011, Sudanese First Vice President Taha urged people to put the security of the two countries ahead of their apprehensions over the CPA. Meanwhile, President al-Bashir reiterated that border arrangements must be respected if conflict in the region is to pass. In September 2011, Juda and Khartoum agreed to withdraw their respective troops from the common South Kordofan, Blue Nile border, creating a demilitarised area, with 10 crossing points for ease of transport and communication.
However, a number of factors indicate that progress in the development of Sudan’s security has stalled. The ICC issued a request for a warrant for the arrest of President al-Bashir in July 2008, but in practice international forces have proved reluctant to intervene, for fear of provoking further discontent in the area. In addition, under the CPA, popular referendum had been expected to demark the Blue Nile, South Kordofan border. Meanwhile, Washington’s refusal to remove Sudan from its list of countries supporting terrorist activity, and disagreements between Juda and Khartoum over the distribution of oil wealth, represent stumbling points in achieving peace between the two nations, and in the most volatile regions of Sudan.
A number of areas of Sudan’s security industry must still be addressed if a legitimate society is to emerge in South Sudan. In such a fragile region, borders must be clearly delineated, but the import of weapons and equipment to the region should also be strictly monitored. In the long term, regional tensions must be eased in order to create a stable society, and as such, the long term social impact of exporting arms known to be for use in Darfur should be made known. Only with security will Sudan, and the newly-created Republic of South Sudan, be able to make social and economic progress.
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