|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Mexico Autos Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's automotive industry.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
The stage is set for nearly 10% growth in total vehicle sales in 2011 and for just over 7% growth in 2012, limited by the sluggish US economy. For private consumption and vehicle sales to fully recover, the economy needs at least a few more quarters of strong US demand to bolster job growth and disposable income. With the deteriorating outlook for the US economy, BMI sees does not expect Mexican vehicle sales to return to pre-crisis levels before 2014.
There is more optimism in the production segment, where BMI believes Mexico is primed to outperform the overall Latin American region. Part of BMI's optimism comes from the September 2011 trade agreements between Mexico and the four Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The agreements will increase Mexico autos exports to the Latin American market, thereby helping production grow an average 8.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2012 and 2016 to 3.92mn units.
Part of the optimism also comes from Japanese carmakers looking to use Mexico as a prominent production base. In June 2011, Mazda Motor joined forces with compatriot Sumitomo Corporation to set up a new production plant in Guanajuato state in Mexico by 2013. In the same month, Honda Motor announced plans to invest US$800mn in building a second vehicle assembly plant in Guanajuato with an annual capacity of around 200,000 vehicles from 2014.
Despite these positive developments, Mexico has seen its score in BMI's Risk-Reward Ratings fall from 63.9 to 56.3 points this quarter. This is due to the risk that domestic production and exports will be hit by a US slowdown at a time when domestic demand is still fragile. Also, a warning from Navistar International's CEO, Dan Ustian, that the US truck maker may shift production away from Mexico highlights the concerns caused by escalating political instability in the country, particularly related to drug violence, and could be read as evidence of weakening confidence from international businesses.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
