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Mexico Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 103
BMI View: Despite the generally positive outlook for much of Latin America in 2012, BMI maintains the view that mounting fiscal pressures and a faltering business environment will damage Mexico's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers Beyond ongoing policy concerns, BMI believes consumer acceptance of black-market low-cost medicines will continue to define the country's pharmaceutical marketplace, regardless of the favourable wording used in new intellectual property (IP) and patent standards.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: MXN154.94bn (US$12.99bn) in 2011 to MXN159.88bn (US$15.39bn) in 2012; +3.2% in local currency terms and +9.4% in US dollar terms. Annual growth forecasts unchanged from Q411.
- Healthcare: MXN872.53bn (US$73.17bn) in 2011 to MXN926.64bn (US$82.37bn) in 2012; +6.2% in local currency terms and +12.6% in US dollar terms. Annual growth forecasts slightly down on new macroeconomic data.
- Medical devices: MXN49.95bn (US$4.19bn) in 2011 to MXN55.58bn (US$4.94bn) in 2012; +11.3% in local currency terms and +18.0% in US dollar terms. Annual growth forecasts unchanged from Q411.
Business Environment Rating: Mexico receives a composite pharmaceutical rating of 58.4 in our proprietary BER rating system. While recent regulatory reforms have increased the country's ratings, the changes are only enough to place it in sixth place among the 17 markets BMI surveys in the Americas.
Key Trends And Developments
- In October 2011, BMI reported on continuing disputes over Mexico's largest public scheme, the Institute for Social Security and Services for State Workers (ISSSTE). While supply issues have become a regular occurrence BMI notes that patients suffering from chronic degenerative diseases are increasingly being affected by shortages.
- In September 2011, Mexico's Ministry of Health announced it will launch a national drug voucher programme to help public health schemes and dispensaries that have faced an increasing number of medicine shortages since 2010. The project, expected to cost the government upwards of MXN300mn (US$23.2mn), is aimed at providing low-income patients with improved access to essential medicines.
- Speaking at the National Convention of Health Officers (Convecion Nacional de Responsables Sanitarios de la Industria Quimico Farmaceutica) in August 2011, Health Secretary Córdova Villalobos announced his government's plan to ease Secretaria de Salud (SSA) registration requirements for low-risk products. It is hoped that by mid-2012, Mexico will introduce new guidelines aimed at speeding up the release of vaccines and shortening response time from 90 days to as few as 30. Finally, Villalobos stated the country's Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (Comisión Fedral para la Protección contra Riesgos Sanitarios, COFEPRIS) is in the process of ensuring medicine certification processes mirror the Pan- American Health Organization's standards, a move BMI believes will help the country's manufacturing sector gain favour with international health agencies.
- Also in August 2011, Mexico's Federal Commission for Protection Against Health Risks (COFEPRIS, Comisión Fedral para la Protección contra Riesgos Sanitarios) called on pharmacies, distributors and drug manufacturers to help curb the country's black market trade of pharmaceuticals. While the announcement calls for an immediate overhaul of how drugs make their way from manufacturer to patient, BMI notes the announcement's significance lies in its eventual goal to implement a national traceability programme.
BMI Economic View: Sound macroeconomic policies should help Mexico register sustained levels of economic activity going forward, averaging 2.6% real GDP growth between 2012 and 2020, according to BMI's forecasts. That said, lack of congressional support will mean the government is hard pushed to enforce much-needed structural reforms before 2012. While the likely winner of the 2012 elections – Enrique Pena Nieto – has recently presented a 10-point plan suggesting significant further economic reform, at this point BMI is uncertain of how much support he will receive from his party in this endeavour. As such, the economy will struggle to meet the conditions to ensure a convergence in living standards with other developed economies for the duration of BMI's 10-year forecast period.
BMI Political View: Although Mexico's general election is not until July 2012, the key Estado de Mexico elections in July 2011 offered an insight into the mood of the electorate before nationwide campaigning begins, with the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) winning comfortably.
Mexican politics are unpredictable, and there is certainly scope for the electoral landscape to change significantly over the next 10 months – perhaps with a late surge in support for a left-wing presidential candidate – but in BMI's view it would take a major shift in sentiment to prevent a victory for the PRI, most probably under Enrique Pena Nieto, the current governor of Estado de Mexico.
Business Monitor International's Mexico Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
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