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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 71
Uganda Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's defence and security industry.
Uganda’s defence expenditure is estimated to have risen 37.21% y-o-y in 2010, accounting for 12.9% of government spending. BMI expects growth in the region of 4.9% in 2011, reflecting Uganda’s military commitments and economic growth. Nevertheless, as a proportion of GDP, Uganda’s expenditure remains below that of other countries in the region. In the long term, we expect to see the country make strong economic gains, despite its vulnerability to political insecurity in the surrounding countries.
The country’s Ministry of Defence has warned that people must remain aware of the continued threat of ADF, LRA or terrorist activity. However, approaches in dealing with such attacks have been inconsistent. In September 2011, Thomas Kwoyelo, the first LRA commander to face trial, was granted amnesty under the country’s 2002 Amnesty Act. For years, the act has been used to encourage rebels to denounce LRA activity, but some have claimed it provides an easy escape for rebels, and others have claimed that it is unconstitutional. Furthermore, while the courts have seemed eager to charge rebels, allegations of unjustified attacks by the Ugandan army, for example, against the Karamojong, have been largely unaddressed.
In foreign affairs, Uganda has made progress in its discussions with Kenya over the disputed Migingo Island since our last update. With surveys continuing, it seems likely that the disagreement will be peacefully resolved. Meanwhile, Ugandan occupation and peacekeeping operations in Somalia have received UN approval. However, the fallout of the death of gay rights activist David Kato in January 2011 is likely to have alienated foreign players and investors; while the bill proposing the death sentence for homosexuals is no longer on the table for official discussion, foreign gay rights activists have been keen to highlight Uganda’s shortcomings in protecting homosexuals, while activists in Uganda have said they will continue to fight for the implementation of the bill, despite international outcry.
Meanwhile, Uganda has not been immune to the wave of political tension felt in the Middle East and North African region; while President Museveni would seem to have gained popularity since 2006, winning a fourth term in office in 2011, his administration, particularly his policy towards military expenditure, has been subject to criticism and opposition. Despite widespread protests against food shortages in April 2011, public debt has been used to fund the purchase of Sukhoi fighter jets, and in July 2011, Uganda’s defence budget was increased by UGX44bn (US$15.4mn).
The country is also likely to revisit and extend its Cold War arms trade ties with Russia. Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport has expressed an interest in supplying arms to Africa, while Uganda’s weaponry is in need of modernisation. Such discussions have again raised the question of priorities, serving to alienate more people from the government. Many more have criticised Russian efforts to supply arms to Africa, proposing that it will do little to resolve conflict in the area. Nevertheless, BMI considers it unlikely that a full scale uprising will materialise in Uganda.
Since our last update, there has been some development in the disarmament of the Karamojong; Uganda’s army has agreed to end its campaign, with the government instead focusing on the permanent settlement of the Karamojong tribes, and the development of sustainable farming. The government is confident it will a positive outcome from its new approach, which could perhaps provide the basis for a more productive, less controversial approach to conflict resolution in Uganda, and the neighbouring regions.
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