|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, Nov 2011, Pages: 44
Business Monitor International's Australia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's freight transportation industry.
BMIs bleak outlook for the Australian freight industry in 2012 stems from a perceived over-reliance on China. A slowdown in China would have a huge impact on many developed countries and Australia is no different. As a result, BMI expect contractions in every sector of the industry during 2012, barring air freight. Road and rail will fall 0.86% and 0.16% respectively, while the ports of Sydney and Melbourne will see year-on-year (y-o-y) falls in tonnage throughput of 2.93% and 3.26%.
BMI warns that Australia must keep a close eye on the economic situation in China. Due to its own domestic frailties, BMI argue that Australia faces a sharp slowdown of its own regardless of the outlook on China. However, a Chinese hard landing would push the Australian economy over the edge, likely ushering in a recession and potentially triggering a financial crisis.
The importance of China's economy for the growth of the region cannot be overstated. The global economic recovery, which began in mid-2009, can be traced back to China's massive stimulus, which generated huge demand for goods across the world. While no country is immune from a slowdown in China - and the likes of Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong are much more exposed than most - BMI believe Australia has the most to lose from a Chinese hard landing.
From BMIs perspective, Australia did not avoid a financial crisis and recession in 2008-2009 due to a superior starting position. The country's property bubble and corresponding household debt situation was as overextended as any in the world, while its export sector faced a collapse in demand for raw materials. Instead, it was the policy response, both domestically and overseas, that allowed Australia to avoid a contraction in growth.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 0.83%.
- 2012 rail freight tonnage is forecast to contract by 0.16%.
- 2012 Port of Melbourne tonnage throughput is forecast to drop by 3.26%.
- 2012 road freight is forecast to contract by 0.86%.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast to fall 4.26%.
Key Industry Trends
Ongoing Industrial Disputes Testing For Australian Ports
Two leading Australian container terminals were facing industrial action in October 2011 by disgruntled workers seeking pay increases. BMI notes that this was not the first time in 2011 that operations at the facilities had been disrupted by work stoppages, and this could lead to a further downwards revision of BMIs throughput forecasts for the ports.
QR National Enters AUD900mn Contract For Rail Project In September 2011, it was announced that Australian rail freight company QR National had entered into a commercial agreement with eight coal companies for the construction of the first phase of the Wiggins Island rail project. Under the AUD900mn (US$954mn) project, a new rail link will be built to the proposed Wiggins Island coal terminal at Queensland's Gladstone Port, which will enable coal exports from mines in the southern Bowen Basin coal field.
Qantas Strikes Qantas has been affected by industrial action on and off since August 2011, disrupting a total of 55 flights (as of September 22 2011). The rolling strikes are related to a dispute over pay and conditions between the Australian carrier and unions. Transport Workers Union (TWU) National Secretary, Tony Sheldon, explained that various meetings with Qantas had failed to resolve these issues.
Risks To Outlook 2012 is going to be a difficult year for Australia's shipping industry, with all the major ports set to endure 12 months of negative growth both in tonnage and container throughput terms. 2011 had seen steady growth with the Port of Brisbane leading the way in tonnage handled, while the Port of Melbourne was ahead of the pack in container throughput, beating Sydney.
BMIs risks are to the downside for 2012 after widescale industrial action affected the shipping sector throughout 2011. Although Australia's top-four box ports faced the immediate brunt of the strikes, the effect will trickle up the supply chain, hitting the country's imports and exports.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
