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Cigarettes & Tobacco Market Report 2011

Key Note Publications Ltd, Oct 2011, Pages: 95


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The UK cigarette and tobacco market comprises four main sectors — cigarettes, hand-rolling tobacco (HRT), cigars and pipe tobacco. The total value of the market is estimated to have reached £17.66bn in 2010, after rising by 8% from 2009, while, between 2006 and 2010, a 12.9% increase was witnessed overall. Key Note estimates that the cigarettes sector continued to account for the largest proportion of the market, representing 86.6% of sales in 2010, followed by HRT, which represented 11.5%. Cigars and pipe tobacco are by the far the smallest sectors of the market, with a combined contribution of 1.9% in 2010.

Despite the value the UK cigarette and tobacco market increasing in recent years, a long-term decline in volume sales has become more apparent. This is due to a number of factors which have affected consumer opinions regarding smoking, while new legislation has also has a significant effect on the volume of cigarettes being sold. A wider awareness of the negative health implications that can be caused by smoking, as well as Government schemes to help smokers quit has persuaded many consumers to stop smoking, thus affecting volume sales. In addition, the Smoking Ban, which was introduced in the UK in July 2007 and made it illegal for users to smoke in public places, also had a significant effect on the market. Changes in other legislation, such as that governing the age restriction at which someone can purchase cigarettes (which rose from 16 to 18 in October 2007) is also believed to have affected the potential value of the market in recent years.

In 2011, the Government published a new report entitled Tobacco Control Plan for England, which outlined a number of steps and initiatives to help people to stop smoking. The first change outlined by the Plan is the display ban, which will mean that retailers will not legally be allowed to display any tobacco products, but will be forced to store them under the counter. The Act will come into force for larger retailers in April 2012, while smaller shops will have to abide by it as of April 2015. Other restrictions, such as the ban of branded tobacco products, are also included in the Plan, although a decision on this particular amendment has yet to be made and will be decided on by the end of 2011.

Four leading companies dominate cigarette and tobacco sales both in the UK and internationally. These include Philip Morris International; British American Tobacco (BAT); Imperial Tobacco; and Japan Tobacco International (JTI). The dominance of these companies makes it extremely hard for new distributors to enter the marketplace, as does the restrictions on advertising within the industry.

Key Note estimates that sales of cigarettes and tobacco will increase at a slow rate between 2011 and 2015, reaching £19.01bn in the latter year. Despite this, growth is expected to slow down considerably in the forthcoming years and any increase in value is likely to be down to rising prices and tax hikes. In terms of volume sales, the market is expected to continue to decline, due to the introduction of the Government’s Plan to tackle tobacco usage.


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